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Providing Insight
Into Climate Change
Polar Regions and Glaciers
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Polar Region Sea Ice

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Here is a series of real time graphs of sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, as globally measured by satellites.

Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992–2016

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Antarctic ice sheet mass-balance differences between the GRACE gravimetry and ICESat satellite altimetry estimates are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA)”. The ice mass changes during 2003-08 were estimated at 150 Gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) for EA, 66 Gt/y for inland WA, -95 Gt/y for coastal WA and -26 Gt/y for the Antarctic Peninsula, giving an Antarctic total gain of 95 Gt/y. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coaster WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains, bringing Antarctica close to balance at -12 ± 64 Gt/y by 2012-16. The total ice mass of Antarctica is 26,500,000 Gt. A decade of ice loss of 120 Gt represents 0.00045% of Antarctica ice causing 0.26 mm of sea level rise.

Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

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The paper combines many satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s. Greenland lost 3,900 ± 340 billion tonnes (Gt) of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing a sea level rise (SLR) of 10.8 ± 0.9 mm. The average annual loss in the period was 150 Gt/yr causing a SLR of 0.41 mm/yr. The total ice loss from 2013 to 2017 was on average 222 Gt/yr causing a SLR of 0.61 mm/yr. 2018 ice loss is estimated at 150 Gt, causing a SLR of 0.41 mm.

Antarctic Specific Features of the Greenhouse Effect

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A research paper by the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany presents a radiative analysis of the greenhouse effect over central Antarctica using measurements and models to shows that the greenhouse effect of CO2 is around zero or even negative in central Antarctica. An increase in CO2 concentration leads to an increased long-wave energy loss to space over central Antarctica, which cools the earth-atmosphere system. The most negative greenhouse effect occurs in autumn with its peak in March, which is also the season with the strongest surface cooling.

Antarctic Ice Expansion Shows Climate Models Are Unreliable

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Despite a 20 percent increase in atmospheric CO2 over 40 years, and model predictions to the contrary, sea ice in the Antarctic has expanded for decades. Such observations are in direct opposition to the model-based predictions of the IPCC. This should give pause for thought about climate alarmism in general. The IPCC report predicts a multi-model average decrease of between 16 and 67 percent in the summer and 8 to 30 percent in the winter by the end of the century (IPCC, 2013). Models simulations give a 1 million sq. km reduction is sea ice, but measurement show a 300,000 increase from 1980 to 2005 due to falling temperatures.

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