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The Canadian Climate Model's Epic Failure

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The Canadian climate model CanESM2 produces one of the most extreme warming projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC. The model badly fails to match the surface and atmosphere temperature observations, both globally, regionally. The mid-troposphere (400 mbar) global model temperature warming rate (1979 to 2015) is 287% of the weather balloon trend, and 532% of the satellite trend. The mid-troposphere (400 mbar) tropical (20 N to 20 S) model warming rate is 447% of the average of the satellite and balloon observations. This is an updated report to include 2015 data.

Testimony of Dr. John Christy - U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology

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Climatologist Dr. John Christy discusses the temperature datasets used to study climate and shows that satellite temperature measurements are superior to land based measurements that are contaminated by the effects of urbanization. Comparing the multi-model mean to satellites and weather balloon data, the models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of 3.2 and over-warm the global atmosphere by a factor of 2.5 over the last 37 years. Christy shows that the new NOAA seawater temperature dataset, which added more warming from 1990, now shows more warming than the Hadley Centre HadCRUT4 seawater temperature dataset, both of which show more warming that the air near the sea surface.

Earth’s Top of Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in Climate Models

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Bob Tisdale's analysis of climate models' shows that there is no agreement on the magnitude of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance in the models. There are even wider disagreements in the three calculated components that make up that energy budget, how they evolved in the past, and how they may evolve in the future. This indicates there is little agreement in the modeled processes and physics that contribute to global warming.

Why Models Run Hot: Results from an Irreducibly Simple Climate Model

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An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. The IPCC AR5 report reduced its feedback estimates which requires a reduction in its climate sensitivity estimate from 3.2 to 2.2 C for a doubling of CO2. The authors argue that the net feedbacks are likely to be net-negative, so that the warming from GHG emissions without any policy changes are likely less that 1 C this century.

CEQ Draft Guidance for GHG Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change

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Dr. John Christy gives testimony to the U.S. Committee on Natural Resources about his analysis of the impact of proposed U.S. regulation on climate. He shows comparisons of climate model projection versus satellite and weather balloon observation. Climate models on average over predict global warming by a factor of three, and by a factor of four in the tropics. Dr. Christy shows eliminating all U.S. emissions today would reduce global temperatures by 0.05 to 0.08 Celsius, assuming a climate sensitivity of 1.8 C per doubling of CO2. He says there is evidence that climate sensitivity is less than 1.8 C, which would reduce this estimate further.

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