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The Flaw in Relying on Worst-Case-Scenario Climate Model

Dr. Ross McKitrick published an article in The Financial Post on June 23, 2020. He wrote: The purpose of global climate policy is to get us from the dangerous upper end of the forecast range down to the safe bottom end — we are already there. Whenever you read a media story about how we’re heading toward catastrophe if we continue operating “business as usual” — i.e., if we don’t slash carbon emissions — the reports are almost always referring to a model simulation using RCP8.5. And you can bet that nowhere in the story will they explain that RCP8.5 is an implausible worst-case scenario that was never meant to represent a likely base case outcome, or that scientists have begun castigating its usage as a prediction of a doomed business-as-usual future.

Testing the Tropical 200-300 mbar Warming Rate in Climate Models

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The tropical warming rate in climate models in the 200-300 mbar (9 to 12 km altitude) is compared to weather balloon measurement at a fundamental test of the models. Dr. McKirtick and Dr. Christy show that the average trend of the measurements is only about half of the climate models. They report a discrepancy across all runs of all models, taking the form of a warming bias at a sufficiently strong rate as to reject the hypothesis that the models are realistic. This means that the water vapour feedback is too strong in the models, and that they overestimate the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Testimony of Dr. John Christy on Climate Science March 29, 2017

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Dr. John Christy gave this testimony to a hearing of the Committee on Science, Space and Technology of the US House of Representatives on 29 March 2017. He writes " When the “scientific method” is applied to the output from climate models of the IPCC AR5, specifically the bulk atmospheric temperature trends since 1979 ..., I demonstrate that the consensus of the models fails the test to match the real-world observations by a significant margin. He recommends the Congress to "fund credible “Red Teams” that look at issues such as natural variability, the failure of climate models and the huge benefits to society from affordable energy, carbon-based and otherwise."

The Canadian Climate Model's Epic Failure

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The Canadian climate model CanESM2 produces one of the most extreme warming projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC. The model badly fails to match the surface and atmosphere temperature observations, both globally, regionally. The mid-troposphere (400 mbar) global model temperature warming rate (1979 to 2015) is 287% of the weather balloon trend, and 532% of the satellite trend. The mid-troposphere (400 mbar) tropical (20 N to 20 S) model warming rate is 447% of the average of the satellite and balloon observations. This is an updated report to include 2015 data.

Testimony of Dr. John Christy - U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology

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Climatologist Dr. John Christy discusses the temperature datasets used to study climate and shows that satellite temperature measurements are superior to land based measurements that are contaminated by the effects of urbanization. Comparing the multi-model mean to satellites and weather balloon data, the models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of 3.2 and over-warm the global atmosphere by a factor of 2.5 over the last 37 years. Christy shows that the new NOAA seawater temperature dataset, which added more warming from 1990, now shows more warming than the Hadley Centre HadCRUT4 seawater temperature dataset, both of which show more warming that the air near the sea surface.

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