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53 Articles

McKitrick on Climate Change

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Dr. Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, explains that the "pause" in global warming reveals that there are flaws in the climate models. The models say there should be an increase but there is no increase in global temperature. “Social costs of carbon” are based on faulty climate models, not reality.



AR5 Attribution Studies

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Dr. Clive Best reviews the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) attribution statement, which is based on comparing climate models to the global temperature record before this century. The statement "depends critically on them [models] being able to simulate both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability. Chapter 9 of the IPCC report shows that models are tuned so as to describe past observations. The model control runs exhibit long-term drifts. Any ‘natural’ trends generated by models in the temperature data are assumed to be an artifact and simply removed. The procedure assumes there in no natural climate change despite the recovery from the little ice age. However, the Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation alone added 0.2 C warming to the 1950 - 2010 trend. The result is that the AR5 attribution statement is useless.



Dr. Judith Curry US Senate Testimony on Climate Change

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry presented this testimony to the US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. She says "Multiple lines of evidence presented in the recent IPCC 5th assessment report suggest that the case for anthropogenic warming is now weaker than in 2007. For the past 16 years, there has been no significant increase in surface temperature. There is a growing discrepancy between observations and climate model projections. Observations since 2011 have fallen below the 90% envelope of climate model projections. The IPCC does not have a convincing or confident explanation for this hiatus in warming. CO2 is not a control knob that can fine tune climate."



A Climate Essay from Dr. Bill Gray

Essay by Dr. William Gray, climate scientist at Colorado State University. He writes, "there is considerable evidence that the global warming we have experienced over the last 30 years and over the last 100 years is largely natural." He says that many thousands of scientists do not accept the human-induced global warming hypothesis as presented by the IPCC reports. Climate models "have basic flaws". It is very difficult to obtain government grants to study natural climate change. "The normal scientific process of objectively studying both sides of a question has not yet occurred.".



Comparing Models and Observations in the Tropical Troposphere

Climate models and observations were compared over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. The paper finds that climate models are inconsistent with three weather balloon series. The models not only predict far too much warming, but they get the nature of the change wrong. Models show a smooth upward trend but the observations show all the warming occurred in a single step-change in the late 1970s, known as the Pacific Climate Shift, and no significant trend before or after. Dr. Ross McKitrick explains the new paper is this Climate Audit post. Over the 1979-2009 interval climate models on average predict 2x and 4x too much warming in the tropical lower- and mid- troposphere layers, respectively.




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