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54 Articles

Comparing Models and Observations in the Tropical Troposphere

Climate models and observations were compared over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. The paper finds that climate models are inconsistent with three weather balloon series. The models not only predict far too much warming, but they get the nature of the change wrong. Models show a smooth upward trend but the observations show all the warming occurred in a single step-change in the late 1970s, known as the Pacific Climate Shift, and no significant trend before or after. Dr. Ross McKitrick explains the new paper is this Climate Audit post. Over the 1979-2009 interval climate models on average predict 2x and 4x too much warming in the tropical lower- and mid- troposphere layers, respectively.

Corbella: Pause in Global Warming Upsets Religious Believers

Calgary Herald columnist and editorial page editor Licia Corbella wrote this article about the presentation by Dr. Ross McKitrick at the Friends of Science 11th annual luncheon at the Metropolitan Conference Centre in Calgary, Alberta on May 13, 2014. McKitrick showed "how the gap is growing wider and longer between what global warming models predicted and what has actually happened to the world’s climate." This discrepancy has major policy implications.

The Global Warming Hiatus

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While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) still uses the iconic word “unequivocal” to describe warming of the climate system over the past century, a new word has slipped into its lexicon: the “hiatus.” They have begun referring, with a bit of hesitant throat-clearing, to “the warming hiatus since 1998.” Cracked-beakerBoth satellites and surface records show that sometime around 2000, temperature data ceased its upward path and leveled off. Over the past 100 years there is a statistically significant upward trend in the data amounting to about 0.7 oC per century. If one looks only at the past 15 years though, there is no trend.

A Sensitive Matter: How the IPCC Buried Evidence

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The IPCC's recently published report suppressed evidence that the climate is much less sensitive to greenhouse gases than indicated by climate models according to this report by Nicholas Lewis and Marcel Crok. The report says, "In AR5, many studies still use inappropriate data and/or statistical methodology. However, there is now a body of empirical estimates of climate sensitivity, prepared using sound methodology and appropriate data, that give substantially lower values - than climate model simulations." Estimate of the cooling effects of aerosols have been cut, which reduces the estimate of greenhouse gas warming, but this is not included in climate models.

IPCC Models Getting Mushy - McKitrick

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Dr. Ross McKitrick writes in the Financial Post "In the next five years, the global warming paradigm may fall apart if the models prove worthless". The IPCC graph comparing models to observations show the models significantly over-predicted the warming effect of CO2 emissions for the past 22 years. There is even a larger discrepancy in the atmosphere over the tropics. The UN IPPC panel is in full denial mode. They claim there is no discrepancy. McKitrick says, "The IPCC must take everybody for fools."

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