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54 Articles

Climate Models Fail to Match Recent Temperature History

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A team of prominent climatologists finds that the continued global warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 to 2012, is no longer consistent with model projections at 98% certainty. Temperatures in the past have changed up to 24 times faster than the 20th century warming. The modeled warming trend since 1979 in the tropical mid-troposphere is four times greater than measurements.

Climate Models Cannot Explain Lack of Warming

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A new paper by prominent German climatologists finds "that the continued [global] warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 -2012, is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." The study suggests that the models underestimate natural climate variability, fail to include important forcing such as ocean oscillation and solar amplification, and overestimate sensitivity to greenhouse gases.

Climate Models vs Observations

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Bob Tisdale compares climate model hindcasts to observations in a series of posts on his climate blog. Here we select six graphs from his posts to demonstrate that the models fail to match observations. The graphs show that the models do a very poor job of simulating climate variability, they produce too much warming in the tropics and the southern exotropics and they do not match the frequency, magnitude, and trend of ENSO events.

Observational Determination of Climate Sensitivity

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Dr. Lindzen and Dr. Choi estimate climate sensitivity to doubling CO2 at 0.7 Celsius. The estimate is based on short term changes in sea surface temperatures and the corresponding changes in out-going longwave radiation determined from satellite data. The present paper is an expansion of the earlier paper where the various criticisms are taken into account. The estimate is less than the no-feedback response, implying that the climate is dominated by negative feedbacks which reduce the CO2 warming effect. Climate models used by the IPCC exhibit large positive feedbacks which greatly exaggerate climate sensitivity.

Testing an astronomically based harmonic climate model vs the IPCC.

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A paper by Nicola Scafetta compares the performance of a recently-proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against general circulation models used by the IPCC. According to the paper's abstract, "... the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. ...The proposed harmonic model well reconstructs the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011." Dr. Scafetta concludes "Consequently, the IPCC projections for the 21st century cannot be trusted."

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