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Providing Insight
Into Climate Change
Climate Models
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54 Articles

Computer Climate Models

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Dr. Tim Ball shows that climate models don't work and explains why they fail.

Overturning the "Consensus" in One Fell Swoop

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New research from Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Lab concludes that the Earth's climate is only about one-third as sensitive to carbon dioxide as the IPCC assumes. Schwartz's results are based on the empirical relationship between trends in surface temperature and ocean heat content.

How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?

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Wentz et al. (2007) report that the UN-IPCC has missed out two-thirds of the cooling effect of evaporation in its assessment of the water-vapor feedback. Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However, the climate models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of precipitation to global warming. Rather, the observations suggest that precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades.

Warming Trends in Asia Amplified by Brown Cloud Solar Absorption

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Ramanathan et al (2007) study the effects of brown clouds of aerosols, formed by fossil fuel and biomass burning, over the Indian Ocean. All climate models assumes that human produced aerosols cause a cooling effect, thereby masking a CO2 warming effect. The authors measure the solar heating effects using three stacked unmanned aircraft. They found that atmospheric brown clouds enhanced lower atmospheric solar heating by about 50 per cent, the opposite of the climate model assumptions.

Emission Scenarios and Recent Global Warming Projections

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Ross McKitrick reviews the IPCC's CO2 emission scenarios that form the basis for its temperature projections. He shows that the projections used in the third assessment report are much too high. The IPCC did not revise the scenarios for the fourth assessment report.

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