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Extreme Weather
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Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 – An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice
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It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change. The disconnect between real-world historical data on the 100 years’ time scale and the current predictions provides a real conundrum when any engineer tries to make a professional assessment of the real future value of any infrastructure project which aims to mitigate or adapt to climate change.
Heat-related Death Projections Don’t Square with Observations
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A paper by David Hondula et al of the Arizona State University reviewed the scientific literature from 2012 to 2015 about heat-related deaths. They find that observational studies based on historical climate and health records show a decrease in negative impacts during the recent warming. But projections of future heat related deaths show “substantial increases.” The descrepancy between observations and projections show a serious problem with the projections. A warmer climate causes people to adapt to heat waves leading to fewer heat-related deaths. Article by By Chip Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels.
Is Global Warming Causing More Snowstorms? No, It Isn’t
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Dr. Roy Spencer explains that warming can't cause more snowstorms. Referring to the Buffalo,NY, lake-effect snowstorm, a report falsely claimed that more snow can be expected with global warming. The Great Lakes were unusually cold this year. Cold isn't caused by warming. Storms require large-scale temperature contrasts to form low pressure systems. The equator to arctic pole temperature contrast has decreased over the last several decades, resulting in less storminess.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. Testimony on Extreme Weather
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Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., University of Colorado, gave testimony at a hearing of the U.S. House Subcommittee on Environment, December 11, 2013 about the relationship between climate and weather. He says, "Globally, weather-related losses ($) have actually decreased by about 25% since 1990 as a proportion of GDP and insured catastrophe losses have not increased as a proportion of GDP since 1960.", and "Flood losses as a percentage of US GDP have dropped by about 75% since 1940." Tornadoes in the US have likely declined in frequency and intensity since 1950.
The Global Warming- Extreme Weather Link
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Dr Madhav Khandekar, a former meteorologist from Environment Canada, examines several recent extreme weather events and discusses them in the context of the ongoing climate debate. There have been increasing cold weather extremes in recent years, which have been totally ignored by the IPCC. The decade of the 1930s was the hottest on record in the USA, and the deadliest heatwave in Canada took place in July of 1936. The 2013 hurricane season in the North Atlantic has been one of least active on record. There has been be no increase in extreme weather events in recent years.
