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Providing Insight
Into Climate Change
The nonexistence of the Tropical Hot Spot & Invalidity of the EPA's Endangerment Finding

The US Environmental Protection Agency's CO2 Endangerment Finding was based soley on IPCC climate models that unanimously predict that greenhouse gas warming would cause a distinctive hot spot of faster rising temperatures in the mid-troposphere over the tropics. This research paper has found that when 13 temperature datasets are adjusted to account for natural ENSO effects, the tropical hot spot definitely "does not exist in the real world", which invalidates the climate models and the endangerment finding. The analysis shows that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have had a statistically insignificant impact on 13 critically important temperature time series once the natural ENSO affects are removed. The abstract says "In fact, there is no ENSO-adjusted warming at all. These natural ENSO impacts involve both changes in solar activity and the 1977 Pacific Shift."

The temperature measurements were from weather balloons, satellites, buoys and land-based instruments. The cumulative Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) behavior since 1950, that is, the cumulative ENSO activity, has been quite similar to that of Cumulative solar activity.

An introduction to this research and abstract of the report in on the website "Tropical Hot Spot Research" HERE. (new window)


The full report is HERE.


 Warning: Some of the graphs in the paper are misleading. The data does not support the conclusions. See my comments here. (new window) Ken Gregory

Here is the predicted warming rate from greenhouse gases:

troposphere tropical hot spot

Actual Radiosonde Measured Warming:

radiosonde measured warming


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