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A Global Assessment of Atoll Island Area Changes

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This study of tropical island and atoll area changes assesses their vulnerability to sea level rise. Atolls are ring shaped coral reefs in the mid-ocean, including a coral rim that encircles a lagoon. An atoll may included many reef islands. This latest study reanalyzed the available photo and satellite imagery of 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands over several decades to a century. The study found that “no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of the islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted.” 73% of islands were stable and 15.5% of the islands increased in size. Islands that changed less than 3% in area were categorized as stable. The paper reports that “no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size”.



The State of the World’s Beaches

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This paper examined the historical shoreline change trends using satellite images since 1984. The paper reports that 31% of the world’s ice-free shoreline are sandy or gavel. The study says that 24% of the world’s sandy and gravel beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, while 28% are accreting more than 0.5 m/yr and 48% are stable. References to sandy beaches include gravel beaches. More sandy beaches are growing than are receding despite sea level rise. On a global scale, the world’s beaches have accreted on average 0.33 m/yr over the past three decades, i.e. a total gain of 3,663 km2.



Changes in the Rate of Sea Level Rise; Gavin vs Eschenbach

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Gavin Schmidt says that sea level rise has accelerated since 1860, but Willis Eschenbach says "Yes, a quadratic provides a better fit than no acceleration, but NOT significantly better. Which means you can't claim acceleration. Eschenbach analyzed the statistical significance the the variance between the quadratic and linear fits of the Church and White 2011 data. Church and White are experts is creating reconstructions of global sea levels from tide gauges. Eschenbach shows that there were large changes in the 31-year trends over the 20th century, ranging from a low of 0.80 mm/y ending 1931 to a high of 2.10 mm/yr in 1961. He concludes "The 95% CI for each of the residuals encompasses the variance of the other residual … and this means that there is no statistical difference between the two. It may just be a random fluctuation, or it might be a real phenomenon. We cannot say at this point."



Tide Gauge Records to Infer Global Sea-Level Acceleration

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Long records of sea level show decadal and multi-decadal oscillations of synchronous and asynchronous phases, which cannot be detected in short-term records. It is clear from the analyses of the tide gauges of long datasets that the sea level has been oscillating about the same almost perfectly linear trend line all over the 20th century and the first 17 years of this century. The tide gauge information does not support any claim of rapidly changing ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica. The average of four long global datasets gives a sea level rise of 1.3 mm/yr with an acceleration of 0.005 mm/yr, which is statistically insignificant.



European Mean Sea Level Shows No Acceleration

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European sea level records are among the best to detect an acceleration due to climate change. This paper by Watson 2017 used advanced techniques to analyze 83 long tide gauge station records across Europe. Most of the records are more than 100 years. The abstract states “Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.” In other word, the data shows no indication of an AGW induced sea level rise acceleration.



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