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19 Articles

Including Ocean Eddies in Models Reduce Sea Level Rise Projections by 25%

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This study investigated the contribution of Antarctica ice melt to sea level rise (SLR) with a standard resolution climate model compared to a high-resolution ocean eddy resolving version of the model. The high resolution model projects a SLR contribution from Antarctica of near zero in 2100 while the low resolution version projects a 9.3 cm higher SLR. Explicitly resolving ocean eddies leads to a more realistic Southern Ocean temperature distribution. The projected SLR is about 25% lower at the end of this century in the eddying model.

Satellite Sea Level Acceleration is Artifact of Bad Calibration at Overlap Periods

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University of Colorado sea level data gives a bogus acceleration of 0.097 mm/yr2 due to the failure to match the satellite trend data over the overlap periods of the four satellites. The trends of the data during the overlap periods should be the same if the data were calibrated, The first three satellites have long overlap periods but the trends were increased by 1.81 mm/yr. The acceleration of tide gauge data is 13% of satellite data.

A Global Assessment of Atoll Island Area Changes

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This study of tropical island and atoll area changes assesses their vulnerability to sea level rise. Atolls are ring shaped coral reefs in the mid-ocean, including a coral rim that encircles a lagoon. An atoll may included many reef islands. This latest study reanalyzed the available photo and satellite imagery of 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands over several decades to a century. The study found that “no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of the islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted.�? 73% of islands were stable and 15.5% of the islands increased in size. Islands that changed less than 3% in area were categorized as stable. The paper reports that “no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size�?.

The State of the World’s Beaches

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This paper examined the historical shoreline change trends using satellite images since 1984. The paper reports that 31% of the world’s ice-free shoreline are sandy or gavel. The study says that 24% of the world’s sandy and gravel beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, while 28% are accreting more than 0.5 m/yr and 48% are stable. References to sandy beaches include gravel beaches. More sandy beaches are growing than are receding despite sea level rise. On a global scale, the world’s beaches have accreted on average 0.33 m/yr over the past three decades, i.e. a total gain of 3,663 km2.

Changes in the Rate of Sea Level Rise; Gavin vs Eschenbach

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Gavin Schmidt says that sea level rise has accelerated since 1860, but Willis Eschenbach says "Yes, a quadratic provides a better fit than no acceleration, but NOT significantly better. Which means you can't claim acceleration. Eschenbach analyzed the statistical significance the the variance between the quadratic and linear fits of the Church and White 2011 data. Church and White are experts is creating reconstructions of global sea levels from tide gauges. Eschenbach shows that there were large changes in the 31-year trends over the 20th century, ranging from a low of 0.80 mm/y ending 1931 to a high of 2.10 mm/yr in 1961. He concludes "The 95% CI for each of the residuals encompasses the variance of the other residual … and this means that there is no statistical difference between the two. It may just be a random fluctuation, or it might be a real phenomenon. We cannot say at this point."