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The nonexistence of the Tropical Hot Spot & Invalidity of the EPA's Endangerment Finding

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The US Environmental Protection Agency's CO2 Endangerment Finding was based soley on IPCC climate models that unanimously predict that greenhouse gas warming would cause a distinctive hot spot of faster rising temperatures over the tropics. This research paper has found that when 13 temperature datasets are adjusted to account for natural ENSO effects, the tropical hot spot definitely "does not exist in the real world", which invalidates the climate models and the endangerment finding. The analysis shows that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have had a statistically insignificant impact on 13 critically important temperature time series once the natural ENSO affects are removed. In fact, there is no ENSO-adjusted warming at all. These natural ENSO impacts involve both changes in solar activity and the 1977 Pacific Shift.



A Guide to Understanding Global Temperature Data - Dr. Roy Spencer

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Dr. Roy Spencer has written a 22-page booklet, “A Guide to Understanding Global Temperature Data,” published by the Texas Public Policy Foundation. The booklet covers some of the scientific research that demolish a number of fashionable beliefs on global warming/climate change. First and foremost is the fad seized upon by some politicians that global warming skeptics are funded, or paid-off, by Exxon or other oil companies, etc. The booklet answers 13 questions, including “Can global temperatures go up naturally, even without rising CO levels?” and “How are temperature data adjusted?” Spencer says “Natural fluctuations in the climate system can easily rival the human influence.” He says this can be due to indirect solar effects and chaotic changes in ocean circulation which have time scales of many centuries. The paper shows that the urban warming effect is largest at very low population densities. Spencer writes “…the rural stations have instead been adjusted to match the urban stations which then leads to a false global warming signal.” He writes about climate sensitivity to CO2, “A minority of climate scientists like me believe climate sensitivity could be 1 °C (1.8 °F) or less, due to negative feedbacks in the climate system.” Finally, “It should be clear that the science of global warming is far from settled.”



A First Look at “Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus”

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Several different data sets show that there has been a hiatus in global warming since the late 1990s despite continuing increases in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. Dr. McKitrick reviews a paper Karl et al 2015 that revises the global sea surface temperature (SST) trend since 1998 upward by 0.06 C/decade. McKitrick reviews the many problems with SST data from ships and buoys. The authors add 0.12 C to the buoys data, which represent a rising fraction of observations over recent decades, but other groups use region-specific adjustments. They also adjust the ship records in the years 1998-2000. Other teams have gone into great detail to look at available metadata for each measurement type and have made corrections based on the specific systems and sites involved.



Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released

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The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) released version 6 of its global satellite temperature product, the result of three years of work. This article by Dr. Roy Spencer, Dr. John Christy and Dr. William Bradwell, describes the major changes in processng strategy and the the results of the work. Version 6 is by far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code ever produced in over 25 years. The two most significant changes are a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric (LT) temperature trend from Dec. 1978 through Mar. 2015 of 0.026 C/decade; and the geographic distribution of the LT trends, including higher spatial resolution. The UAH trend from Jan. 2002 decreased from +0.057 C/decade (ver.5.6) to -0.029 C/decade (ver.6.0), or a change of -0.086 C/decade. The RSS trend for the same period is -0.049 C/decade.



Temperature Adjustments Transform Arctic Climate History

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The Arctic warmed up rapidly during the 1930’s and 40’s, before temperatures plunged in the 1960’s and 70’s. The GISS Arctic temperature record has been "adjusted" by cooling past readings so that the current adjusted records are about a degree Celsius warmer than the 1940s. Nearly every current station from Greenland, in the west, to the heart of Siberia (87E), in the east, has been altered by cooling past temperatures. The effect has been to remove a large part of the 1940’s spike, and as consequence removed much of the drop in temperatures during the subsequent cold decades. The evidence suggests that the official temperature trends for the Arctic, as published by GISS and others, are hopelessly flawed.



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