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Solar Activity and Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and Atmospheric Circulation

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A study published in Quaternary International evaluated the regional and global relationships between solar activity and variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation during the instrumental record period. The study found significant correlations between sunspot numbers (SSN) and SST over a 111-year period from 1901 to 2011 for 11.7% of the global sea surface at the 95% significance level. The strongest correlations were in the Pacific off northern California, off eastern Japan and in the vicinity of Nauru. The study also “indicated that higher geopotential height anomalies tended to appear in the stratosphere and troposphere in the northern hemisphere, centering on around the Hawaiian Islands from November to December, in the second year of the solar maximum. … Analyses of the relationships between solar activity and the Earth's climate system also revealed relationships between variations in solar activity and circulation in the troposphere.” The pattern in the Pacific corresponded with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal oscillation (PDO). The strongest correlations were found between SSN and the PDO and SSN and the central-Pacific El Niño at a 29-month lag after solar maximum. The authors say that the effect of solar activity on SST seems to be related to the PDO. The paper concludes “it is likely that the solar activity had an influence on the troposphere not only from the stratosphere but also via the sea surface.”



The Role of Solar Variability on Northern Hemisphere Temperature Trends since the 19th Century

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This paper by Willie Soon and Ronan & Michael Connolly reviews several different solar variability datasets, and presents a new estimate of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends since 1881 based on mostly rural stations to eliminate most of the effects of urbanization that contaminates government datasets. The authors compares the new NH temperature dataset to the solar variability dataset by Scafetta & Willson, 2014 and finds a strong coelation of R2= 0.48, implying that solar variability has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since at least 1881.



Is a Mini-ice Age Coming in 2030, and Does the Sun have Two Dynamos?

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A new model of the sun has produce unprecedentedly accurate predictions of the sun's variable solar cycles. The model uses two solar dynamos, one near the solar surface and one in the deeper in the convection zone. Dr. David Evans discusses the model and its implications for Earth's climate. The model predicts that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.



Solar Activity and Greenland Climate 12,000 Over Years

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A paper published by "Nature Geoscience" finds a persistent link between solar activity and Greenland climate during the last ice age from a high-resolution record of radionuclides representing temperature and solar activity. The ice cores were collected from central Greenland and the record spans from 22,500 to 10,000 years ago. The website "The Hockey Schtick" describes the solar forcing mechanism as proposed by the authors with an extensive excerpt and graphs from the paper. The correlation R2 between the temperature proxy and the solar proxy is 0.3 at 99% confidence.



Low Solar Activity May Cause Cold Winters in Northern Countries

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Jarl R. Ahlbeck of the Abo Akademi University, Finland analyzed the statistical relation between the direction and strength of the stratospheric wind in the tropics, solar activity, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During the negative or cold AO phase, cold Arctic air often extends far south in the winter. The AO is strongly related to cold northern winters. The author finds that low sunspot solar activity is related to easterly stratospheric tropical winds, which are able to decrease the AO index. The regression correlations are "statistically significant."



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