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Better Science - Where is the Recent Warming?

Two Friends of Science members published these letters in the Readers' Forum section of the September 2012 issue of "The PEG Magazine", the official publication of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta (APEGA). Dr. Neil Hutton argues that the historical record and recent science show that the Sun in the primary driver of climate. Brad Bakuska says global temperatures have flatlined since 2000, contradicting computer projections.

Climate and the Solar System

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Past Friends of Science director Albert Jacobs writes about the substantial solar influence on earth's climate. He writes, "the influence of the sun and the solar system has been proven to be far more complex" than just the total solar irradiance recognized by the IPCC. Solar research includes variations in the "solar wind", the behaviour of the solar dual dynamo, the effects of conjunction and opposition of the major planets orbiting the sun, and the influence of the variations in solar radiation on the Galactic Cosmic Ray flux, which affects worldwide cloud cover. The larger planets may influence the sun’s tachocline that controls the solar magnetic cycles and thus its various influences on earthly climate.

Solar Activity and Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and Atmospheric Circulation

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A study published in Quaternary International evaluated the regional and global relationships between solar activity and variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation during the instrumental record period. The study found significant correlations between sunspot numbers (SSN) and SST over a 111-year period from 1901 to 2011 for 11.7% of the global sea surface at the 95% significance level. The strongest correlations were in the Pacific off northern California, off eastern Japan and in the vicinity of Nauru. The study also “indicated that higher geopotential height anomalies tended to appear in the stratosphere and troposphere in the northern hemisphere, centering on around the Hawaiian Islands from November to December, in the second year of the solar maximum. … Analyses of the relationships between solar activity and the Earth's climate system also revealed relationships between variations in solar activity and circulation in the troposphere.” The pattern in the Pacific corresponded with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal oscillation (PDO). The strongest correlations were found between SSN and the PDO and SSN and the central-Pacific El Niño at a 29-month lag after solar maximum. The authors say that the effect of solar activity on SST seems to be related to the PDO. The paper concludes “it is likely that the solar activity had an influence on the troposphere not only from the stratosphere but also via the sea surface.”

The Role of Solar Variability on Northern Hemisphere Temperature Trends since the 19th Century

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This paper by Willie Soon and Ronan & Michael Connolly reviews several different solar variability datasets, and presents a new estimate of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends since 1881 based on mostly rural stations to eliminate most of the effects of urbanization that contaminates government datasets. The authors compares the new NH temperature dataset to the solar variability dataset by Scafetta & Willson, 2014 and finds a strong coelation of R2= 0.48, implying that solar variability has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since at least 1881.

Is a Mini-ice Age Coming in 2030, and Does the Sun have Two Dynamos?

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A new model of the sun has produce unprecedentedly accurate predictions of the sun's variable solar cycles. The model uses two solar dynamos, one near the solar surface and one in the deeper in the convection zone. Dr. David Evans discusses the model and its implications for Earth's climate. The model predicts that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.

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