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Do Atmosphere Temperatures Support Greenhouse Gas Warming Theory?

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This paper evaluated the atmospheric temperature trends of the UAH satellite temperature record to determine if the data supports the theory that global warming is mainly due to the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG). Four metrics of the GHG theory were compared to the data. Each of the four metrics is contrary to GHG theory. The atmospheric temperature data does not support the GHG theory, but contradicts it. The paper also investigated the temperature variability of the troposphere and the lower stratosphere and to determine whether these are associated. It shows the intrinsic properties of the thermal regime in the lower stratosphere are not associated with the thermal regime in the troposphere.



In Search Of Autonomous Regulatory Processes In The Global Atmosphere

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Dr. Arthur Rörsch prepared this working paper which re-considers the equilibrium model for the earth's greenhouse effect by studying the diural surface temperature cycle as a dynamic stabilization mechanism. The radiative, convection and evaporation effects of water is examined quantitatively using a model of the temperature variation during the diurnal cycle. The wind and water interactions responsible for evaporation and associated convection strongly limits the radiative warming effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The author encourages readers to make comments at his website www.arthurrorsch.com.



Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change

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Friends of Science advisor Madhav L. Khandekar wrote a report describing the uncertainties in greenhouse gas induced climate change and problems with climate models, dated March 2000. Since then the discrepancies between the climate model's hindcasts and the climate measurements have only grown larger. The mean surface temperature increase during 1978 to 1997 was 0.32°C, however, the impact of urbanization and land-use changes may have contributed about 0.1°C to that increase. The temperature trend in the lower atmosphere 1979-1998 was about 0.10°C/decade which is much less that the 0.16°C/decade at the surface, contrary to theory. The cause of the temperature change is a combination of natural variability including solar effect and anthropogenic sources. There are large uncertainties in radiative forcings by aerosols, which may offset a significant part of the greenhouse gas forcing, and in cloud and sea ice cover.



Correcting Flaws in Global Warming Projections

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Ron Clutz wrote a summary of a paper published posthumously of Dr. Bill Gray’s understanding of global warming/climate change. The global climate models (GCM) all project than an increase in CO2 warming leads to an increase in atmospheric water vapour. This results in the water vapour, which is a strong greenhouse gas, to cause further warming. In contrast to this positive feedback built into GCMs, Dr. Gray believes that there is a negative feedback, meaning that the temperature rise would be less than the direct effect of the theoretical CO2 warming. The paper says “CO2 warming ultimately results in less water vapour (not more) in the upper troposphere. The GCMs therefore predict unrealistic warming of global temperature. He hypothesize that the Earth’s energy balance is regulated by precipitation (primarily via deep cumulonimbus convection) and that this precipitation counteracts warming due to CO2.”



The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

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Climatologists Nicholas Lewis and Judith Curry published an important paper in the Journal of Climate that estimates the climate sensitivity to CO2 using the energy balance method. Using the temperature history (HadCRUT4.5), ocean heat data and the most recent climate forcing information, the authors estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 1.50 deg C, which is only 47% of the climate model average value. The likely uncertainty range is half of that estimated by the IPCC. The paper also refutes criticism of the energy balance method. While the paper does not address possible natural temperature recovery from the Little Ice Age, it concludes that the high values of climate sensitivity from climate models are inconsistent with the observed warming.



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