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31 Articles

Climate Models Have Been Predicting Too Much Warming

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Dr. John Christy argues that the surface energy balance is like a tug-of-war with cooling factors against the sum of three warming factors; downward atmospheric radiation, solar radiation, and our extra greenhouse gases (GHG), mostly carbon dioxide. Our emissions of GHG are about 0.34% of the total warming factors. Christy removed the effects of ENSO and volcanoes from the 38-years of satellite temperature data and found the remaining temperature trend is 0.095 °C/decade. The average troposphere temperature rise would be 1.1 °C at the time when CO2 levels double. The corresponding value of the climate models' average is 2.3 °C, so the models over-warm the atmosphere by more than a factor of 2. The models project a warming in the tropics between altitudes 9 - 12 km of 0.44 °C/decade, but the observation (weather balloons etc.) show only about 1/3 of that. The models are wrong be a factor of three! This paper is based a talk given by Dr. John Christy at the Palace of Westminster, U.K. on 8 May 2019.



Do Atmosphere Temperatures Support Greenhouse Gas Warming Theory?

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This paper evaluated the atmospheric temperature trends of the UAH satellite temperature record to determine if the data supports the theory that global warming is mainly due to the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG). Four metrics of the GHG theory were compared to the data. Each of the four metrics is contrary to GHG theory. The atmospheric temperature data does not support the GHG theory, but contradicts it. The paper also investigated the temperature variability of the troposphere and the lower stratosphere and to determine whether these are associated. It shows the intrinsic properties of the thermal regime in the lower stratosphere are not associated with the thermal regime in the troposphere.



In Search Of Autonomous Regulatory Processes In The Global Atmosphere

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Dr. Arthur Rörsch prepared this working paper which re-considers the equilibrium model for the earth's greenhouse effect by studying the diural surface temperature cycle as a dynamic stabilization mechanism. The radiative, convection and evaporation effects of water is examined quantitatively using a model of the temperature variation during the diurnal cycle. The wind and water interactions responsible for evaporation and associated convection strongly limits the radiative warming effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The author encourages readers to make comments at his website www.arthurrorsch.com.



Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change

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Friends of Science advisor Madhav L. Khandekar wrote a report describing the uncertainties in greenhouse gas induced climate change and problems with climate models, dated March 2000. Since then the discrepancies between the climate model's hindcasts and the climate measurements have only grown larger. The mean surface temperature increase during 1978 to 1997 was 0.32°C, however, the impact of urbanization and land-use changes may have contributed about 0.1°C to that increase. The temperature trend in the lower atmosphere 1979-1998 was about 0.10°C/decade which is much less that the 0.16°C/decade at the surface, contrary to theory. The cause of the temperature change is a combination of natural variability including solar effect and anthropogenic sources. There are large uncertainties in radiative forcings by aerosols, which may offset a significant part of the greenhouse gas forcing, and in cloud and sea ice cover.



Correcting Flaws in Global Warming Projections

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Ron Clutz wrote a summary of a paper published posthumously of Dr. Bill Gray’s understanding of global warming/climate change. The global climate models (GCM) all project than an increase in CO2 warming leads to an increase in atmospheric water vapour. This results in the water vapour, which is a strong greenhouse gas, to cause further warming. In contrast to this positive feedback built into GCMs, Dr. Gray believes that there is a negative feedback, meaning that the temperature rise would be less than the direct effect of the theoretical CO2 warming. The paper says “CO2 warming ultimately results in less water vapour (not more) in the upper troposphere. The GCMs therefore predict unrealistic warming of global temperature. He hypothesize that the Earth’s energy balance is regulated by precipitation (primarily via deep cumulonimbus convection) and that this precipitation counteracts warming due to CO2.�?