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Providing Insight
Into Climate Change
The Greenhouse Effect
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23 Articles

Out-going Longwave Radiation and the Greenhouse Effect

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Using radiosonde data from 1960 to date and a line-by-line radiation code, the normalized greenhouse factor was calculated to have increased by 0.19% over 49 years, which is not significant. Climate sensitivity at doubled CO2 concentration is estimated to be 0.4 oC. This is about 13% of the 3.0 oC estimate by the International Panel on Climate Change.

CERES Satellite and Climate Sensitivity

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The Transient Climate Response due to double CO2 is calculated using the CERES satellite outgoing longwave radiation measurements and HadCRUT surface temperatures. This analysis by FoS Director Ken Gregory suggests that the temperature change from June 2013 to January 2100 due to increasing CO2 would be 0.20 C (from HadCRUT3) or 0.39 C (from HadCRUT4), assuming the CO2 continues to increase along the recent linear trend. The transient climate response to doubled CO2 is 0.38 +/- 0.54 C using hadCRUT3, and 0.74 +/- 0.54 C using hadCRUT4 data at 95% confidence. These values are much less than the multi-model mean estimate of 1.8 C for TCR given in the IPCC 5th assessment report. Revised Feb. 23, 2014.

Trends in Tropospheric Humidity from NCEP Reanalysis Data

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This paper examines the radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis on tropospheric humidity. It shows that the 35-year trends in specific humidity at all altitudes above the 850 hPa level are significantly negative, implying that the long-term water vapor feedback is negative, contrary to the assumption used for climate models.

Water Vapor Decline Cools the Earth: NASA Satellite Data

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An analysis of NASA satellite data show that water vapor, the most important greenhouse gas, has declined in the upper atmosphere causing a cooling effect that is 16 times greater than the warming effect from man-made greenhouse gas emission during the period 1990 to 2001. Radiosonde data also shows declining upper atmosphere humidity. Both satellite data and radiosonde data confirms no tropical upper atmosphere temperature amplification, contrary to IPCC theory. Four independent data sets prove the IPCC theory wrong. CO2 does not cause significant global warming.

English Translation: The Presumed Cause of Climate Fluctuations - Svante Arrhenius, 1906

The Friends of Science Society has translated the 1906 paper by Svante Arrhenius from the original German to English. In this paper, Arrhenius revised downward his previously estimated effect of doubling CO2 (including water vapour feedback) from 5 deg. C to 3.9 deg. C, By comparison, the climate model mean estimate is 3.2 deg. C. Arrhenius also estimated the direct effect of doubling CO2 (without a change of water vapour) at 2.1 deg. C. The corresponding climate model mean estimate is 1.16 deg. C. Arrhenius also concludes that changes to CO2 can't explain the ice ages.

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