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Providing Insight
Into Climate Change
The Greenhouse Effect
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24 Articles

English Translation: The Presumed Cause of Climate Fluctuations - Svante Arrhenius, 1906

The Friends of Science Society has translated the 1906 paper by Svante Arrhenius from the original German to English. In this paper, Arrhenius revised downward his previously estimated effect of doubling CO2 (including water vapour feedback) from 5 deg. C to 3.9 deg. C, By comparison, the climate model mean estimate is 3.2 deg. C. Arrhenius also estimated the direct effect of doubling CO2 (without a change of water vapour) at 2.1 deg. C. The corresponding climate model mean estimate is 1.16 deg. C. Arrhenius also concludes that changes to CO2 can't explain the ice ages.

Evidence for Negative Water Feedback

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Positive linear climate feedback for combined water effects is shown to be incompatible with the Faint Sun Paradox. Earth like planets with large liquid water surfaces can self-regulate temperature for small changes in incident solar radiation. Direct evidence for negative water feedback is found in CRUTEM4 station data by comparing temperature anomalies for arid regions (deserts and polar regions) with those for humid regions (mainly saturated tropics).

The Skeptic's Case

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Dr. David Evans presents the skeptics case. Government funded climate scientists claim that water vapour amplifies the direct warming effect of carbon dioxide three-fold, but independent climate skeptics say that empirical evidence shows that clouds and water vapour cut the direct warming effect in half.

Infrared Radiation and Planetary Temperatures

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Climate scientist Raymond Pierrehumbert explains the standard infrared radiation theory and how it determined planetary temperatures. Most serious climate skeptics agree with the basic theory, but disagree with Raymond's conjecture that the amplification by water vapour feedback is well known. Falling water vapour content in the upper atmosphere and increasing clouds can offset the effects of water vapour increase in the lower atmosphere.

The Stable Global Atmospheric Greenhouse Optical Thickness

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Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi calculates the atmospheric radiative flux components for the true greenhouse-gas optical thickness from the radiosonde data. In the 1948-2008 time period the global average annual optical thickness is found to be time-stationary. Simulated radiative no-feedback effects of measured actual CO2 change over the 61 years were calculated and found to be of magnitude easily detectable by the empirical data and analytical methods used. The data negate increase in CO2 in the atmosphere as a hypothetical cause for the apparently observed global warming.

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