Global Temperatures Global Troposphere Temperatures click here For full size []]
Providing Insight
Into Climate Change
Climate Change Science Essay page 4

Heating of the Troposphere

Computer models based on the theory of CO2 warming predicts that the troposphere in the tropics should warm faster than the surface in response to increasing CO2 concentrations, because that is where the CO2 greenhouse effect operates. The Sun-Cosmic ray warming will warm the troposphere more uniformly.

The UN's IPCC fourth assessment report includes a set of plots of computer model predicted rate of temperature change from the surface to 30 km altitude and over all latitudes for 5 types of climate forcings as shown below.

                      Computer Model Predicted Temperature Change

Computer Model Predicted Temperature Change

The six plots show predicted temperature changes due to:
           a) the Sun
           b) volcanic activity
           c) anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gasses
           d) anthropogenic ozone
           e) anthropogenic sulphate aerosol particles
           f) all the above forcings combined

The rate of temperature change is shown by the colour in degrees Celsius per century.

It is apparent that plot c) of warming caused by greenhouse gasses is strikingly distinct from other causes of warming. Plot f) is similar to plot c) only because the IPCC assumes that CO2 is the dominant cause of global warming.

The computer models show that greenhouse warming will cause a hot-spot at an altitude between 8 and 12 km over the tropics between 30 N and 30 S. The temperature at this hot-spot is projected to increase at a rate of two to three times faster than at the surface.

However, the Hadley Centre's real-world plot of radiosonde temperature observations shown below does not show the projected CO2 induced global warming hot-spot at all. The predicted hot-spot is entirely absent from the observational record. This shows that atmosphere warming theory programmed into climate models are wrong.

                         HadAT2 Radiosonde Data 1979 - 1999

HadAT2 Radiosonde Data 1979 - 1999


 The left scale is atmosphere pressure in hPa. The right scale is altitude in km.
Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E
See Greenhouse Warming? What Greenhouse Warming? by Christopher Monckton

The graph below compares the global annual temperatures of the troposphere to the surface measurements. The lower troposphere measurements from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (LT UAH). It measures the temperature of the troposphere up to approximately 8 km. The HadCRUT3 curve is the Land and Sea-Surface Temperatures data set from UK Met Office. The GISS curve is the surface temperatures from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies. The three curves are scaled so that the trend lines equals 0 degrees Celsius in 1979. The graph shows the GISS temperatures increasing at 0.21 ºC/decade and the lower troposphere warming at only 0.11 ºC/decade. All climate models forecast the lower troposphere warming faster than the surface due to increasing water vapor. The GISS climate model has the lower troposphere (weighted the same as the satellites) warming at 130% of the surface temperatures.

global annual temperatures of the troposphere and surface measurements

The graph below compares the annual temperatures of the troposphere to the surface measurements in the tropics. The lower troposphere measurements from the UAH is from 20 degrees North to 20 degrees South, and the surface temperatures from HadCrut4 is from 30 degres North to 30 degree South, and the surface temperatures from GISS is from 24 degrees North to 24 degrees South.

Tropical annual temperatures of the troposphere and surface measurements

A comparison of the records show that the surface has warmed faster than the troposphere, the opposite of what is predicted by the theory of CO2 warming. The GISS AF model warms the lower troposphere 30% faster than at the surface.

The predicted troposphere warming response in the tropics to global warming is the fingerprint of the hypothetical positive water vapor feedback that is programmed into the climate models.

The UAH analysis is from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It uses micowave measurement from several satellites. The IPCC projections do not agree with the data.


Stratospheric Cooling

The graph "HadAT2 Radiosonde Data 1979 - 1999" in the previous section shows that the stratosphere (above 16 km) has cooled, which might appear to indicate a greenhouse gas effect. However, stratospheric cooling is predicted to occur due to both greenhouse gasses and ozone depletion. The ozone concentration in the stratosphere has declined from 1970 until 1995, and has not declined at all since then due to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which limits the emission of ozone reducing CFCs. The stratosphere temperatures are given below from here.

lower stratosphere



The lower stratosphere temperature has not declined at all since 1995 (when the ozone levels are stable or slightly increasing), so the weather balloon data does not indicate any greenhouse gas cooling of the stratosphere. In fact, it appears that there has been a slight warming of the lower stratosphere since 1995, the opposite of what is predicted by computer models of the greenhouse gas effects. The stratosphere cooling indicated by the radiosonde data is caused by the changing ozone concentration, not by greenhouse gasses.

Below is a graph of lower stratosphere temperature from satellite data for the University of Alabama in Huntsville. It shows no change in temperature from 1994 through 2015, then a small drop in 2016. The two prominent peaks in 1982 and 1991 where caused by large volcanic eruptions.

Lower statosphere Temperature from UAH


CO2 Versus the Sun Warming Theories

The following table sets out a comparison of the predictions of two climate theories - the CO2 warming theory and the Sun/Cosmic Ray theory - and actual real world data.


Issue Prediction - CO2 Theory Prediction - Sun/Cosmic Ray Theory Actual Data Which Theory Wins
Antarctic and Arctic Temperatures Temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic will rise symmetrically Temperatures will initially move in opposite directions Temperatures move in opposite directions Sun/Cosmic Ray
Troposphere Temperature Fastest warming will be in the troposphere over the tropics The troposphere warming will be uniform The surface warming is similar or greater than troposphere warming Sun/Cosmic Ray
Timing of CO2 and Temperature Changes at End of Ice Age CO2 increases then temperature increases Temperature increases then CO2 increases CO2 concentrations increase about 800 years after temperature increases Sun/Cosmic Ray
Temperature correlate with the driver over last 400 year na na Cosmic ray flux and Sun activity correlates with temperature, CO2 does not Sun/Cosmic Ray
Temperatures during Ordovician period Very hot due to CO2 levels > 10X present Very cold due to high cosmic ray flux Very cold ice age Sun/Cosmic Ray
Other Planets' Climate No change Other planets will warm Warming has been detected on several other planets Sun/Cosmic Ray

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