Critical Review Of Climate Science And Related Energy Policies
Our goal is to inform the public and media to provide a balanced view of climate science and thereby encourage governments and media to engage in public debates on the scientific merits of the hypothesis of “human-induced global warming” and on the various policies that intend to address the issue. While Friends of Science does not conduct any original scientific research, it draws on the worldwide body of work by scientists in all fields relating to global climate change. Those scientific specialties range from micro-paleontology to the astrophysics of the solar dynamo, from planetary conjunctions and oppositions to the evidence of climate changes in past geologic times, from the globe’s ocean currents to glaciers and the polar ice caps.
Climate Change Is Real
Some things stand out: Climate is a complex topic of the Earth Sciences (geology and geophysics). It has been changing throughout 4.5 billion years of geologic times including recent centuries. The geologic record does not support the notion that climate and in particular temperature increases are regulated by atmospheric carbon-dioxide, although the reverse may sometimes occur (i.e. increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 lag increases in global temperature, indicating outgassing of CO2 from the oceans as they warm).
Humans do affect our planet and cause regionally local climatic impacts. Typically these impacts are related to the Urban Heat Island effect, agricultural disturbance, large water diversions, and deforestation. However, many natural cycles cause much larger changes in regional and global climate that humans can do nothing about.
The Sun Is The Main Direct And Indirect Driver Of Climate Change
It is our considered opinion that the Sun and forces within the Solar System are the main direct and indirect drivers of climate change. Variations in solar activity affect the rate at which cosmic rays enter the earth’s atmosphere, which has been shown experimentally to assist in cloud formation and in turn affecting temperature. Fewer cosmic rays result in reduced low cloud cover, which allows more sunlight to warm the Earth’s surface.
The Sun itself is subject to forces which make it move around the centre of gravity of the System, thereby probably affecting the ways in which its “dynamos” generate electromagnetic energy and radiation which - in turn - are projected outward at various strengths at various times. The entire system has a number of cyclic expressions which can be measured on earth. At present we are experiencing the decay of a “solar maximum” which has been with us for most of the 20th century. The declining sunspot numbers in Solar Cycles 23 & 24 are leading many solar physicists to predict a solar minimum occurring within a few decades, potentially similar to the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715 which is also referred to as the Little Ice Age.
These natural forces, imposed on earth by the solar system, are expressed through their effects on the oceans, the atmosphere and possibly the lithosphere. When an established set of circumstances is apparently changing one could call it a “climate change”. To label any short term changes “climate” is a mistake. It is likely to be “weather”. For convenience sake a period of at least 30 years divides Climate from Weather, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. Local weather patterns and changes are the interaction between an intra-atmospheric play of forces normally reacting to rotation, night & day, existing patterns of ocean currents, land and water, etc., etc. Climatic change results from those forces that affect the larger patterns for extended periods of time, which are often imposed from outside the earth-proper.
Note that CO2 is not involved in the picture as a factor of significance.
The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) Is A Political Organization.
The IPCC is premised on the search for a human causation to climatic changes. Much of the IPCC’s science work is dominated by computer simulations of theoretical scenarios, a method which may serve as a “what if” tool, but which is not suited to produce meaningful projections, particularly not in the case of climate, which is a complex array of dynamically changing and interacting non-linear parameters, that simple computer models cannot handle satisfactorily. Present model predictions run hot as they do not model the distribution and effects of clouds correctly if at all.
These scenarios assume without justification that CO2 is the major driver of climate. The cosmic ray effects on clouds are ignored. Varying solar radiation is dismissed as a “solar constant”. The input assumptions are adjusted to make the temperature projections match recent temperature trends, thereby grossly exaggerating the effects of CO2 on the climate. The models, in response to CO2, predict distinctive temperature altitude and latitude profiles in the atmosphere, which is absent from the observational record.
Investigations cast doubt on historical data used by the IPCC. Urban effects still contaminate surface temperature data even though the IPCC claims that their models accommodate for this effect. Some measured CO2 levels of the past 180 years appear to be in excess of present levels. Seventy percent of the globe, especially in the oceans, has few continuous data.
Influence Of Agenda-Driven Green Groups On IPCC Reports
The “Physical Science Basis” Working Group I (WG I) of the IPCC has done some credible work, but the disclosure of the “Climate Gate” e-mails has provided proof of repeated data tampering, collusion and a lack of an open scientific review process. Yet, the WG I reports contain a sample of diverse opinions - subsequently ignored. The Physical Science reports are extensive and too technical for non-scientists. So, IPCC provides a “Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)” composed by UN personnel concerned with the politics of the policy process and with little scientific input. This biased SPM is the politicised document which is to be read by governments and media throughout the world. It serves as the unquestioned base for the alarmist scenarios of WG II (Vulnerability, consequences, and options) and WG III (Limitation and mitigation options), which allowed the IPCC to gain acceptance of its plans at the COP meetings and raise funds. Researchers have uncovered that key authors of IPCC documents are agenda-driven green activists whose organizations are funded by green billionaires with vested interests in renewables and “carbon” related policies.
Open, Civil Debate Is Essential
The Friends of Science Society continues its efforts to bring a proper scientific and economic base into the discussions. Friends of Science Society has always advocated for open, civil debate and cost-benefit analysis. While actions by others may compel the Society to comment on political actions and policy by governments and others, our main thrust is on climate science and the consequences of “remedial” actions and choices.