By: Ken Gregory, P.Eng.

CliSci # 380                                        2022-11-27

 

The Australian Climate is Fine — but the State of the CSIRO and the BOM is a Crisis

Joanne Nova is critical of the latest “State of the Climate Report” by our Government-funded agencies. She wrote “The latest State of the Climate Report is out to scare everyone with plucked esoteric records based on dubious datasets adjusted with secret algorithms. The star of the report is the 1.5 degrees of Australian “hockeystick” graph of warming (below). The Herald Sun calls it ‘Scary’.” However, the report doesn’t mention the fact that satellite data don’t show any warming in Australia in the last 10 years. Nova wrote “The CSIRO and BoM prefer to use thermometers in carparks, near runways, or close to incinerators, then they magically adjust trends at some sites up by as much as 2 degrees (that’s the whole century-long trend right there?!)

 

Climate Change Isn’t Causing a Decline in Coral Reefs

The Washington Post published a story about a Malaysian “coral gardener,” who restored coral reefs near his home. Dr. Sterling Burnett of The Heartland Institute criticized the story for spreading false information about the effects of global warming on coral reefs. He wrote “Some corals have declined in recent years, others have expanded, and new colonies have been discovered. Of those that have declined, there is little support for any link to climate change, and a great deal of evidence pointing to other factors being behind local coral declines.”  Corals first appeared during the Cambrian Period and they “increased dramatically more than 400 million years ago, coming into existence when global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations were much higher than at present. Coral have proved adaptable, expanding their range, evolving, and thriving through periods of higher and lower temperatures than the Earth is either currently experiencing or can be reasonably expected to experience in the foreseeable future.”

 

OBR Reveals the Crippling Cost of Net Zero

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) of the United Kingdom reveals the cost of Net Zero ambitions in the UK.  Paul Homewood found the following information in one of the OBR’s spreadsheets for the October 2021 Economic & Fiscal Outlook. Over the full period of 2020 to 2050, the total public spend on Net Zero is as high as £573.1 billion. The Low /High Share scenarios simply reflect what proportion of the cost the government will pay as opposed to the public as shown in this graph. It does not alter what we will have to pay in total terms, whether via tax or private spending. Paul wrote “Just focusing on the next few years, the High Share comes to a frightening £138.8 billion by 2030, on top of what we have all paid out up to now. By 2050 the impact of Net Zero public spending is projected to increase public sector debt by 11.8% of GDP. But on top of this will come an extra 22.4% of debt resulting from indirect effects and debt interest. In other words, that figure of £573 bn above is probably only a third of the true cost to the public sector. Meanwhile, as already noted, the private sector will also have to pay out much more in the quest for Net Zero.”

 

CORRECTION to article “The Warming that Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas” in the previous CliSci # 379 of November 11

Randy wrote to me, “This looks like an oops… last time I checked, 0.9 was less than 2.6!  Should the daytime value have been 0.26?” Keith wrote, “Is a decimal place misplaced in Las Vegas daytime temperature rise value?”  My reply, “Yes, the sentence should be ‘The Las Vegas nighttime warming trend is about 0.9 °C/decade while the daytime trend is only 0.26 °C/decade!’ “ 

Thank you to Randy, Keith and others who told me about this error. The error was corrected in the website version in the afternoon of November 11. If you notice an error, please send me a message via the Friends of Science main website menu > Contact > Connect With Us.  I will make the correction on the website version of CliSci.

 

CliSci # 379                                        2022-11-11

 

De-Urbanization of Surface Temperatures with a Landsat Dataset

Numerous studies have shown that the government datasets of surface temperatures over land have been strongly affected by urbanization and/or local heat sources. Dr. Roy Spencer had previously studied the urban heat island effect (UHIE) in the United States based on population densities as a proxy for urbanization and found that the temperature trend after removal of the UHIE is only 50% of the official NOAA dataset. This month he published a new study of the UHIE using a Landsat-based “Built-up” dataset. This dataset shows the urbanization changes over the 40-year period 1975 to 2014. Spencer presents a method to compute the UHIE on surface land temperatures using summertime early morning over the period 1973 to 2022 by comparing urbanization differences to temperature difference from closely-spaced weather stations. He wrote “The results for the eastern U.S. lead to a 50-year warming trend 50% less than that from the official NOAA homogenized surface temperature dataset. It is likely that the daytime reductions in temperature trends will be less dramatic.”

The temperature data comes from the Integrated Surface Database (ISD) hourly data which are mostly from airports. The “Built-up” dataset shows the increase of manmade structure densities developed from the Landsat satellites on a global latitude-longitude grid, with a nominal 1 km resolution. Spencer used the data to determine the UHIE as a function of distance from a thermometer station location. Graphs were presented that show temperature differences between station pairs are strongly related to their urbanization differences. The UHIE correction results in a 40% reduction in the average temperature trend of 269 ISD stations in 37 Eastern U.S. states, 1973-2022.  Spencer notes that this is likely an underestimate of the UHIE as this method doesn’t include effects of stations being very close to heat generating equipment. However, the official NOAA August temperature trend is 13% higher than the raw ISD trend. The UHIE adjusted trend of the ISD stations of 0.12 °C/decade is 51% less than the official NOAA trend. Much of this temperature trend may be natural as it begins in 1973 which is near the low point of the 65-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

 

The Warming that Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas

Using the methodology described in the previous article, Dr. Roy Spencer computed 50-year trends for Las Vegas and for a rural Nevada station, from 24-hourly data, which allows us to see how the trends change with time of day. He did this for the warmest half of the year, April through September. The strong warming in Las Vegas has been entirely at night. The Las Vegas nighttime warming trend is about 0.9 °C/decade while the daytime trend is only 0.26 °C/decade! The rural station “shows the background climate signal, with fairly uniform (and weak) warming trends throughout the day. But the impervious surfaces in Vegas — buildings, concrete, asphalt — absorb more sunlight during the day than the surrounding desert, and then at night release that heat into the air.”  The reasons for this are that the albedo of the city is lower than the surrounding desert and that concrete has a thermal conductivity 9 times as large as sand does.

 

Antarctic Ice-shelf Advance Driven by Atmospheric & Ocean Circulation

A new paper (Frazer Christie et al 2022) reports that 85% ice shelve of the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) underwent sustained advance over the almost two decades from 2003 through 2019, in contrast to the previous retreat between 1982 and 2002. The scientists used high-resolution satellite observations coupled with atmosphere and ocean records to link this advance to a regional, wind-driven stabilizing effect imparted on the ice shelves by increased concentrations of near-shore sea ice. The abstract say “We attribute this advance to enhanced ocean-wave dampening, ice-shelf buttressing and the absence of sea-surface slope-induced gravitational ice-shelf flow. These phenomena were, in turn, enabled by increased near-shore sea ice driven by a Weddell Sea-wide intensification of cyclonic surface winds around 2002. Collectively, our observations demonstrate that sea-ice change can either safeguard from, or set in motion, the final rifting and calving of even large Antarctic ice shelves.”

 

Climate-driven Holocene Dynamics from Peatlands of the Gulf of St. Lawrence

Anticosti Island, located in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) is covered by 25% peatland ecosystem. This study presents a reconstruction of the vegetation accumulation and water table variations and related carbon accumulation of the peatlands. The peat growth variability is driven by changes in temperature and atmospheric moisture balance throughout the Holocene. The paper says “Peat-based palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest links between maritime peatland development and climate variations, driven by solar forcing and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the GSL region.” A slowdown in peat accumulation combined with dry and cool conditions after 3300 year before the present (BP) coincided with the transition from the mid-Holocene warm period to the Neoglacial cooling. A decrease in peat accumulation after 800 years BP corresponds to the transition from the Medieval Climate Optimum warm period to the Little Ice Age. The cooling periods are characterized by a decrease in incident solar radiation and the incursion of cold and dry Arctic air masses into the GSL. The study shows that climate during the Holocene was highly variable long before human-caused CO₂ emissions.

 

Glacier National Park Glacier Saga

As recently as September 2018, signs at Glacier National Park (GNP) in Montana proclaimed that computer models predict that the glaciers will be gone by 2020, so they were quietly removed in the winter of 2018/19. Teams from Lysander Spooner University visiting the Park each September have noted that GNP’s most famous glaciers have been growing since about 2010. Judith Curry wrote about the variability of the glaciers in a recent post on her blog. She said “Glacier National Park was virtually ice free 11,000 years ago.” Their maximum size was at the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) at about 1850.  The park’s glaciers lost 50% of their areal extent from the LIA to 1966, averaging a loss of 4.5% per decade, when greenhouse gas warming was minimal. There was another 12% loss from 1966 to 1998, averaging 3.7% per decade, and 4.75% loss from 1998 to 2015, averaging 1.75% per decade. Curry wrote “While the loss between 1998 and 2015 has decreased relative to prior decades, it appears that the ice loss has actually stalled or slightly reversed since 2008.” Since 2016, most years have shown normal to above normal spring snowpack. Ocean cycles such as ENSO have a large influence on snow accumulation and summertime melt. Curry notes that there is no reason that slow warming will cause a net loss of glacier area or mass. In some situations, warmer winter temperatures are associated with more snowfall. “Once you understand the natural variability, you aren’t so prone to attributing everything to fossil-fueled warming and making naïve predictions of the future.”

 

Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Electrical Power to Replace Fossil Fuels

Energy allows and facilitates all physical work done. Energy consumption correlates directly with producing goods and services that we all require to life and enjoy life. The falling cost of energy, particularly since the introduction of fossil fuels, has resulted in major improvements in the material well-being of billions of people. This 1000-page study evaluates the mineral requirements to completely phase out fossil fuels and deploy a full system replacement with carbon free technology, powered with renewable energy systems. For every 1,000 mineral deposits discovered, only one or two deposits typically become viable mines. From the time where a mineralized deposit is discovered, it can take 20 to 25 years to develop into a producing mine, assuming that the deposit is viable. The report finds that the total additional non-fossil fuel electrical power annual capacity to be added to the global grid will need to be around 38,000 TWh, equivalent to 221,600 new power plants. This is much more than the current 46,400 power plants. Global reserves of lithium ore, let alone global production, may not be enough to resource the quantity of batteries required for electric vehicles alone. To make just one battery for each vehicle in the global transport fleet, it would require 48% of 2018 global nickel reserves, and 44% of global lithium reserves. In order to compensate for the highly intermittent solar and wind power sources, a 4-week power capacity buffer is required. If this was provided by lithium-ion batteries, the lithium required would far exceed global reserves and is not practical. However, no alternative system is available, so wind and solar power generation may not be able to be scaled up to the proposed global scale. Replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system (oil, gas, and coal), using renewable technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, will not be possible for the entire global human population.

 

CliSci # 378                                        2022-10-26

 

Solar Activity, Stratospheric Polar Vortex and Atmosphere Circulation

This new paper presents evidence that solar variability affects the stratospheric polar vortex which changes the lower atmospheric circulation. The stratospheric polar vortex is a large-scale cyclonic circulation that forms in a cold air mass in the polar region and extends from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere. There are several factors related to solar activity that affect the atmosphere, including ultraviolet radiation, total solar irradiance and cosmic rays. There are often strong correlations between solar activity and indicators of climate, but the correlations strength can change and disappear depending on a time period. The abstract says “The results presented in this work show that the vortex plays an important part in the mechanism of solar activity influence on lower atmosphere circulation, with variations in the vortex intensity being responsible for temporal variability in the correlation links observed between atmospheric characteristics and solar activity phenomena.”

 

An Interview with Top Climate Scientist Bjorn Stevens

Bjorn Stevens is Director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the principal German climate science research and modeling centre. He is considered an expert on aerosols and clouds. Die Zeit, a German newspaper, published an interview with Steven. Nic Lewis gives this English translation. Stevens say “In my field, most people think of a cloud as these compact white objects in the blue sky.”  It’s like in the children’s book as if you could draw a line around the edge of the cloud. Stevens say “many scientists use the children’s book clouds, as a guide because they are easier to simulate. This makes the climate models less accurate.” The issue of clouds for climate is how clouds change with warming. The high warming rates in many climate models are mainly caused by a change in clouds. However, Stevens said “Based on our latest measurements and advances in theory, I would say today: zero.” That is clouds do not contribute to global warming, contrary to the IPCC and climate models.

Stevens is very critical of the scientists of the Potsdam Institute which recently claimed that by the end of the century there will be almost no clouds to reflect sunlight and we are doomed. Stevens says “That’s nonsense. …  Unfortunately, people prefer stories about the end of the world. … If people don’t learn to think for themselves, we’re lost anyway.”

 

U.S. Summer Temperature: ALL 36 Climate Models Are Too Warm

Dr. Roy Spencer published a graph comparing the U.S. (48 states) 50-year (1973-2022) summer surface temperature trend as measured by the official National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observations to 36 climate models as used by the IPCC in the last climate assessment report. He reports that the NOAA US summer trend is 0.26 °C/decade while the climate models trends range from +0.28 to +0.71 °C/decade. The Canadian model has a trend of 0.62 °C/decade, so it is one of the worst models. The median climate model trend is 0.46 °C/decade, which is 1.8 times the trend of the NOAA dataset. Spencer wrote “For 1979 through last month (Sept. 2022) the USA48 trend [of the UAH lower troposphere] was +0.18 C/decade.”    Spencer notes that the NOAA trend is likely contaminated by the urban heat island effect (UHIE). His own analysis of the UHIE is 50% of the NOAA USA temperature trend. He wrote “The resulting 311-station average U.S. trend (1973-2020), after removal of the UHI-related spurious trend component, is about +0.13 deg. C/decade, which is only 50% of the USHCN [the NOAA US data] trend of +0.26 °C/decade. Correcting for the UHIE, the median climate model trend is 3.6 times the NOAA trend.

 

Critical Minerals for Wind, Solar and Electric Cars

A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) states “A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine thirteen times more mineral resources than a gas-fired power plant. [The report says “nine” but the chart shows “thirteen” times!] Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50% as the share of renewables has risen.” The report has several charts that compare the amount of critical minerals required to generate a unit of electricity from various power sources. The report says “Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, longevity and energy density. Rare earth elements are essential for permanent magnets that are vital for wind turbines and EV motors. Electricity networks need a huge amount of copper and aluminum, with copper being a cornerstone for all electricity-related technologies.” The share of total demand of lithium for electric vehicles, battery storage, wind and solar power required to meet the Paris Agreement goals is forecast to increase from 29% in 2020 to 90% in 2040. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and mainland China were responsible for some 70% and 60% of global production of cobalt and rare earth elements respectively in 2019. For lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, the world’s top three producing nations control well over three-quarters of global output. China’s share of refining is nearly 90% for rare earth elements. It has taken 16.5 years on average to move mining projects from discovery to first production. The quality of ore has declined with the ore grade in Chile declining by 30% in 15 years. All this works against the electricity transition.

 

Lithium Prices

The main use of lithium carbonate is as a precursor to lithium compounds used in lithium-ion batteries which are required for electric vehicles and utility-scale battery storage. Lithium carbonate may be converted into lithium hydroxide before conversion to compounds used in lithium-ion batteries. The price of lithium carbonate over the last two years has increased from 39000 CNY/T at October 26, 2020 to 552,500  CNY/T at October 25, 2022, or by a factor of 14. The price of electric cars will not be coming down anytime soon.

 

Did Global Warming Contribute to Wildfires in Western Washington?

Some media outlets, including the Seattle Times, have been making claims that recent Western Washington wildfires were the result of global warming. Cliff Mass presents evidence that this isn’t true. All major fires on the western side of the Cascade Mountains are associated with strong easterly winds (winds from the East). There were two very large fires in the early 20th century, but much small fires in 1951, 2005 and 2022. There is no trend to large areas being burned. Westerly winds are moist which bring rainfall. Strong easterly winds are essential for westside fires. High-resolution climate simulations show that warming results in weaker easterly winds, working against more fires. Mass says this make sense as global warming preferentially warms the interior of the continent compared to the slow-to-warm coastal zone. Oceans warm slower than the land. This lowers air pressure east of the mountains and weakens the easterly flow. A secondary factor is a dry late summer and autumn. Mass presents a plot of August to October precipitation for the western slopes of the Cascades which shows a clear upward trend. Climate models also project increasing precipitation in the region from 1970 to 2100 during the autumn months. So warming has reduced these wildfire events.

 

Global Warming Isn’t Responsible for Hurricane Ian

Hurricane Ian made initial landfall on September 28 in southwest Florida as a category 4 with reported maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. It weakened into a tropical storm while traversing Florida. This article by Chris Martz, Millersville University, Meteorology, shows that most media coverage is just alarmism. By windspeed, Ian tied with seven other hurricanes that made US landfall as the fifth strongest. Of these 12 hurricanes, 6 occurred before 1970.  Wind speeds today are measured by aircraft reconnaissance, but prior to aircraft observations, wind speeds were measured from surface weather stations 10 m above the ground or ship and buoy observations without a correction for the boundary layer friction. The highest reported wind gust of Hurricane Ian was 140 mph. The damage to trees is more resembling of a Category 3 hurricane, not a Category 4. Therefore, hurricane intensities prior to aircraft recon were underestimated or they today are overestimated. Martz says that a much better metric for hurricane intensity is their minimum sea level pressure. “By ranking hurricane intensities by their landfall pressure, Hurricane Ian ties with three other storms for the 18th strongest hurricane to landfall in the Continental United States over the last 172 years.”

Martz presents data showing that the global tropical cyclones frequency has slightly decreased over the past four decades and that there hasn’t been any significant change in the number of major tropical cyclones over that same time period, particularly since 1990. This is contrary to many news media reports. He also shows there has been no detectable multidecadal change in the destructive power of tropical cyclones. There has been a significant increase in the raw numbers of major hurricane counts in the North Atlantic since the 1980s. Martz says this is due to changes in observing practices, the Atlantic multidecadal ocean oscillations and perhaps reduced aerosol use, not due to human-cause climate change.

 

CliSci # 377                                        2022-10-09

 

Media Lying About Climate and Hurricanes

Michael Shellenberger, author of “Apocalypse Never”, writes on his blog “Over the last several weeks, many mainstream news media outlets have claimed that hurricanes are becoming more expensive, more frequent, and more intense because of climate change.” He lists several news article claims and wrote “All of those claims are false. The increasing cost of hurricane damage can be explained entirely by more people and more property in harm’s way.” He shows that claims in increasing hurricane intensity and frequency are also wrong and that landfalling US hurricanes have declined. The best available science forecasts that all categories of hurricanes will decline in frequency, with the weaker hurricanes declining more than the decline in strong hurricanes of category 4 and 5. Shellenberger gives evidence of deliberate deception by listing four ways the media mislead the public about climate change and hurricanes.

 

Deglacial Conditions of the Northeastern Greenland Shelf and CO₂

“When CO₂ levels were in the mid-200s parts per million (11.7 to 4.5 thousand years ago) the Arctic and northern Greenland were 2-4°C warmer than now, ice margins were 80 km behind today’s, ice-free open water conditions prevailed, and Greenland warmed 10°C in just 60 years.” This statement summarized the main findings of this study that investigated the transition from the last glaciation to the Holocene Epoch at the Fram Strait which connects the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans between Northeast Greenland and Svalbard. The NE Greenland shelf receives cold Polar and warmer Atlantic water masses. The study reconstructs the deglacial condition of the NE Greenland shelf using a marine sediment core covering the period from 13,300 to 3,900 years before 1950 (BP). The results show that the outer Northeast Greenland shelf was deglaciated and marine conditions were established prior to 13,300 years BP. The data show Atlantic water masses flowing beneath an extensive sea-ice cover. Around 12,900 years BP the onset of high water life productivity is associated warm condition prior Younger Dryas, which was an extremely cold period before the sudden warming at the start of the present interglacial. There was a number of changing water conditions as the dominant flow direction changed through the Fram Strait. The Holocene Thermal Maximum conditions, characterized by high water productivity, were promoted by enhance Atlantic water flow to the shelf from 7,500 to 6,700 years BP.

 

The Texas Electricity System Froze in February 2021. Can It Happen Again?

Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy published a paper that examined factors that were blamed for the extended power outage on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity grid during the February 2021 winter storm. The abstract says “All forms of generation capacity experienced failures, but bureaucratic failure in identifying and addressing risks along fuel supply chains was a major failure. Moreover, most proposed remedies do not fundamentally address what occurred. Some may be driven by opportunistic lobbying.”

As of December 2020, the ERCOT total nameplate capacity was 108 GW but the winter rated capacity was only 79 GW because of down-rated wind and solar power during the winter. At the February 16 peak, over 30% of ERCOT’s rated winter capacity was offline. A total of 263 power plants experienced at least partial outages during the February storm with 95 plants experiencing a 100% shutdown. ERCOT listed weather (53%), equipment issues (14%) and fuel limitations (12%) as the top three causes of the derated capacity.

Two neighboring regions that serve portions of North and East Texas couldn’t supply power to ERCOT because they were also experiencing outages and emergency load reductions. Natural gas capacity suffered the most outages during the freeze, yet generated significantly more power than is typically seen during February. The wind power capacity grew by 3.4 times that of 10 years ago. When wind delivers above and somewhat below its seasonal rating, the electricity price may be uneconomic for all generators so the net impact of variability in wind generation can be to reduce incentive to invest in all types of capacity on the grid, which can compromise reliability. Both wind and natural gas facilities failed to deliver due to a lack of winterization. As the fraction of supply coming from non-dispatchable resources increases, the social value of reliability becomes more important.

 

Global Climate Models versus Global Temperatures

Global climate models used in the last IPCC climate assessment report (AR6) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 °C. This is the predicted temperature rise that would theoretically occur if the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere were doubled then held constant until the oceans reach temperature equilibrium.  Dr. Nicola Scafetta published a new paper which reduces the ECS range by comparing the models’ accuracy and precision in hindcasting to four global surface temperatures datasets as well as the UAH satellite dataset over the period 1980 to 2021. The 38 climate models were assigned to low, medium and high ECS groups as summarized in this article. The surface datasets have a warming bias to due siting issues and the urban heat island effect. The results show that only the low ECS group, with ECS values between 1.5 °C and 3.0 °C are consistent with the surface temperature data. The UAH satellite data measures the temperatures of lower troposphere, which according to the IPCC theory and climate modes, are supposed to warm faster than surface temperatures. The UAH satellite temperature trend of 0.135 °C/decade is actually much less than the surface temperature datasets. Assuming the UAH satellite warming trend is representative of the warming at the surface, the low ECS group should be scaled down by 33%, giving an ECS range of 1.0 °C and 2.0 °C.

Scafetta compared the land to ocean warming ratios of models, surface and satellite data and shows that surface land warming is too high. He also shows that warming is partially caused by natural multidecadal and millennial oscillation, both of which contribute to the warming from 1980 to 2021. Adjusting the ECS for these natural oscillations could reduce the ECS range to 0.7 °C to 1.7 °C. The high end of the ESC range is only 30% of that of the climate models.

 

Wind and Solar – The More You Do, The Harder It Gets

Increasing the amount of wind and solar reduces the ability of the electricity grid to absorb it and the economics can degrade and even reverse. The problems associated with increased penetration levels of wind and solar swamp any potential benefits that might be achieved through economies of scale. This article gives eight reasons why increasing the penetration levels of renewables will lead to rapidly increasing costs as well as rapidly decreasing reliability.

1. Wind and solar energy do not readily supply essential reliability services including voltage and frequency support.
2. Wind and solar are intermittent resources and their output does not match consumer demand.
3. Current wind and solar project are located at the most optimal sites. The suitability of remaining sites will decrease.
4. Wind and solar depend on rare materials which must be mined and may be limited.
5. Costs of wind and solar direct and indirect subsidies will grow.
6. It takes a lot of energy to build wind and solar facilities.
7. Wind and solar make the control and operation of the power system more complicated and uncertain.
8. Widespread deployment of wind and solar would require that power be transmitted across great distances and/or an incredible amount of costly battery storage.

 

CliSci # 376                                        2022-09-19

 

The 2022 Hurricane Season is Unusually Mild

Mid-September is usually the peak of hurricane activity. Pierre Gosselin wrote “Currently only hurricane Fiona is active in the Atlantic, and it is projected to go out to sea hundreds of miles away from the USA east coast and fizzle out. It’s been a quiet season.” The US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other hurricane professionals predicted a season with above-normal to well above-normal activity. This article of September 11 says “This should be the absolute peak of hurricane season—but it’s dead quiet out there” and “Seasonal forecasting is still a developing science. While it is typically more right than wrong, predicting specific weather patterns such as hurricanes months in advance is far from an established science.” Meteorologist Joe Bastardi warns us “It’s a late starting season. It’s not over by a long shot.”

 

Are Pakistan’s Floods Your Fault and You Should Pay?

Jim Steele writes about the science of Pakistan’s devastating floods and the shamefully manipulative narratives by politicians and the media. He wrote “The worst is MSNBC’s attempt at public shaming by calling the catastrophe ‘climate racism’.”  On the science, Steele says “Pakistan’s unique location has made it vulnerable to natural swings of dramatic weather between major droughts and major floods long before rising CO₂ has had any impact. Since 1850 Pakistan has experienced 7 major droughts and 6 major floods.” Steele says that the 2022 floods are similar to the 2010 floods. Steele quotes from a paper by Friends of Science climate science advisor Dr. Madhav Khandekar, “a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña between spring and summer of 2010 appears to be the key element in triggering a vigorous monsoon of 2010 over the Indian subcontinent. … the 2010 Pakistan floods, although seemingly unprecedented, were well within natural variability of the monsoonal climate over the Indian subcontinent.”

During La Nina condition the Bay of Bengal (SE of India) contributes greater quantities of water vapor to the region. Pakistan’s heavy flooding in both 2010 and in 2022 happened during La Nina years. Since 1880 there is no trend in excess rainfall or drought conditions over the greater Indian region. The Sun’s seasonal path northward brings a narrow band of high precipitation (the Intertropical Convergence Zone) to India and Pakistan via changes to the trade winds. Northwest winds lose moisture as they travel towards Pakistan. The Himalayan ranges provide vertical uplift, cooling the air which squeezes out almost all of the remaining moisture. These are natural weather dynamics. Atmospheric circulation simply shifted moisture transport from eastern India into western India and Pakistan. This led to Pakistan's summer 2022 heavy rainfall. Steele describes lots of complications. However, he says you are not guilty of climate racism or causing Pakistan’s floods.

 

The IPCC’s Changing Tune on Extreme Weather

This paper by Dr. Ralph Alexander reviews the IPCC’s sixth assessment report’s (AR6) coverage of extreme weather events and compares it with empirical data in recent research papers and reports. The IPCC reports from 1990 to 2019 found little to no evidence attributing extreme weather to global warming, except for heavier rainfall in some regions. The IPCC changed its tune in the 2021 AR6 report by claiming that climate change is affecting many weather extremes all over the globe. Alexander says this is incorrect. For example, several studies show that global long-term trends of drought are not increasing, contradicting the IPCC claim that agricultural and ecological droughts are increasing. Alexander discusses the IPCC’s false claims related to tropical cyclones, heatwaves, cold extremes and coral bleaching.

 

Does the ice core record show that CO2 controls the climate? Nope!

Sir David Attenborough showed the delegates at the COP26 meeting in November 2021 a chart showing CO₂ and temperatures moving together. The data are proxy air temperatures and CO₂ concentrations over 800,000 years from Antarctica ice cores. The chart is similar to one that Al Gore presented in his science fiction movie, “An Inconvenient Truth”. He implied that CO₂ level changes caused the temperature changes. This article discusses the chart and the results of a detailed statistical analysis of the ice core which was published in a technical journal.  The article says “In short, temperature influences CO₂ levels but CO₂ doesn’t influence temperature.” The same is true for methane (CH₄). The authors of the paper said any CO₂ warming effect is too weak to show up in the ice core record. They also noted that three earlier teams of authors who studied the ice core data had already concluded the same thing in 1999, 2001 and 2003, years before Gore’s 2006 movie.  

 

Global Decarbonization: Negative Agricultural Impacts

Dr. Craig Idso wrote a discussion and summary of a peer-reviewed paper that gives the impact of a fairly strict CO₂ emission reduction policy on the agriculture sector. The authors of the paper estimate that a US$150 per ton of CO2 tax, averaged for the world, would increase the price of beef by 108%!  The price of rice would increase by 67% and milk by 49%.  They authors estimate that the global food price index would rise by nearly 40%, but the impacts would vary greatly by world region. The larger increases from 60% to 100% are projected for Oceania, south Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Idso wrote “Sadly, these regions harbor the least efficient agricultural production systems and their inhabitants will therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the globally-averaged projected increase in the food price index.” The paper also shows that a US$190 per tonne of CO₂ tax, which the IPCC estimates would limit warming to 1.5 °C about pre-industrial temperatures, would cause “a 300 million person increase in the global number of chronically undernourished persons, which represents a whopping 150% increase above those presently occupying this category!”

 

Wildfires are the "Old Normal" for the Pacific Northwest

Some media and politicians have suggested that wildfires and wildfire smoke are not normal in the US Pacific Northwest and are a potent sign of a changing climate. Meteorologist Cliff Mass says “They are not correct.  Wildfires and their smoke are a natural part of the Northwest ecosystem. What was not normal was the period of suppressed fire during the later portion of the 20th century.” Mark Twain was invited to speak in Olympia in August 1895. The chairman of the reception committee apologized for "smoke so dense that you cannot see our mountains and our forests, which are now on fire". Twain retorted “As for the smoke, I do not so much mind, I am accustomed to that. I am a perpetual smoker myself.”

Studies show that fire is a regular feature of the region for millennia. Forests burn every few hundred years to every decade. In the 1940s the U.S. Forest Service began to effectively suppress forest fires resulting in a huge decline in wildfire area. Starting in the 1970s there have been more fires, but far less annual area burned than before the Forest Service intervention. This recent increase of burned area is due to several factors. Decades of fire suppression let to a buildup of dense, highly flammable debris. There was a change in policy to allow many fires to burn. There was a large increase in human-caused forest fires.

 

CliSci # 375                                        2022-09-01

 

Update of Climate Models’ Trends versus Observations

According to climate models, which encompass the current theory of the greenhouse effect, the largest impact of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases is over the tropics. Dr. John Christy has kindly provided three new graphs which each compare climate model trends to the observations. Here is a bar graph showing the warming trends of climate models and observations over the period 1979-2021 of the atmospheric layer in the tropics from 300 to 200 hPa pressure levels, which are about 9 to 12 km altitude. The average trend of the climate models is 0.41 °C/decade and the average of the observations (weather balloon radiosonde and reanalysis data) is 0.17 °C/decade. The models overwarm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of 2.40. The Canadian model is the worst as the average warming trend of its two versions is 3.6 times the observations.

This graph shows 5-year means of the 1979 to 2021 tropical troposphere temperatures of the climate models’ average (model mean) and the observations by radiosonde, satellites and reanalysis. The best fit linear trends are also shown. The model mean trend is 0.32 °C/decade and the average of the three observation types (radiosondes, satellites and reanalysis) is 0.17 °C/decade. The model mean trend of the tropical troposphere is 2.03 times the observations’ average. The tropics are 20°S to 20°N and the troposphere is from the surface to about 16 km altitude.

The third graph is similar to the previous graph except that is also shows the individual climate model simulated temperatures. The variability of the climate models is 3 times larger than the observations indicating the models lack the negative feedback mechanisms operating in the real climate system. The graphs clearly show that the climate models are not fit for making climate policies.

 

Lake Mead Low Water Levels: Overuse, Not Climate Change

In response to several news media articles claiming low water levels in Lake Mead are due to human-caused climate change, Dr. Roy Spencer published two articles that show the main cause is increasing water use. Water use has dramatically increased such that more water is being taken out of the Lake Mead reservoir than nature can provide. There has been a 3 fold increase in water withdrawals since the early 1920s. Since about 2000, the use of Lake Mead water has exceeded the river inflow. The April Colorado River basin snowpack, which provides about 50% of the water show no long-term decline from 1938 to 2020. After many years of above average water inflow from more mountain snows due to stronger El Nino years, the water available from the Colorado River basin has decline somewhat in recent years due to stronger La Nina years which has less snowfall. The negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 2000, which relates to the frequency of El Nino and La Nina events, has exacerbated the problem. Climate change theory predicts an increase of precipitation in the Colorado River watershed as shown by the average of 183 climate model simulations. The simulated precipitation increased by 5% from1980 to 2050.

 

The Science of Snowfall and Climate Snowjobs

As scientists who study what controls snowfall admit, “There are “no easy answers” to the question of climate change and snow”. Jim Steele produced a video and blog post that discusses the science of snowfall. He criticized a fear mongering Bloomberg article that claimed there will soon be an end to snow. Steele shows that while spring northern hemisphere snow extent has declined, winter and fall snow extent has increased since 1967. The amount of snowfall in various regions is governed by very different moisture transport dynamics. El Nino cycles and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have very significant impacts on snowfall. La Nina directs more moisture northward causing more snow in the pacific northwest and the northern United States. Temperature and moisture have opposing effect on snowfall. Regions with the greatest snowfall are also regions with the lowest winter atmospheric moisture. Moisture from the tropics will dump lots of snow when making landfall further northward. The pattern of decreasing and increasing snowfall does not fit global warming expectations.

 

Energy Transition: The land Use Conundrum

Dr. Judith Curry reviews a new paper about land-use intensity of electricity production. The paper finds the land-use intensity of energy (LUIE) spans four orders of magnitude, from 7.1 for nuclear to 58,000 for biomass in ha/TWH/yr.  The current global energy system has a small land footprint of 0.4% of ice-free land. Curry wrote “Plans for an entirely renewable energy system for the globe will substantially increase the amount of land use for energy production, particularly with growing energy consumption and the widespread electrification of heating, transportation and industry. The land footprint of energy systems displaces natural ecosystems, leads to land degradation, and creates trade-offs for food production, urban development, and conservation.” The natural gas footprint is 410 ha/TWh/yr. Ground-mounted solar PV has a LUIE of 2,000. Wind is complicated as the LUIE depends on the potential of using the space between wind turbines, so wind LUIE ranges from 130 to 12,000. The problem with wind farms with low LUIE is that such locations are far from population centers where the bulk of the energy is needed. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil- or biomass-fueled power plants were estimated to increase the land use footprint by 40% compared to a plant without CCS. Biofuels have played a major role in global food crises in 2008, 2011 and 2022. Nevertheless, approximately 10% of the world’s grains are being turned into biofuels.

 

Overview of the Koonin-Dessler Debate

Andy May wrote a review of a debate that was held on August 15, 2022 in the New York Sheen Center between Andrew Dessler and Steven Koonin. May wrote “Koonin won the Oxford Style debate since 25% of the in-person and online audience shifted to his view that the debate question: ‘Climate science compels us to make large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions’ is a false statement.” Steve Koonin’s slides are here. Andrew Dessler didn’t respond to a request for his slides. A YouTube video of the debate is here. Dessler asserted that the estimated rise in global average surface temperature of about one °C since the 19th century is unusual over geological time; solar and wind energy can provide most of the world’s energy; wind and solar are the cheapest sources of electricity; and all effects of climate change are negative for humanity. Koonin countered that Dessler's costs for solar and wind do not include the costs of backup or electrical grid upgrades. Koonin says that if we continue using fossil fuels, and if the IPCC climate and economic models are correct, the U.S. economy will be 400% larger without climate change or 384% larger with climate change by 2100, a barely perceptible difference. He notes that people are much better off when they use more energy with increasing life expectancy and quality of life.  Deaths and damages per income due to extreme weather have decreased. Koonin says lives depend upon reliable electricity and that backup systems other than by fossil fuels are far too expensive.

 

CliSci # 374                                        2022-08-14

 

Ocean Acidification is No Threat to Marine Ecosystems

This open access paper is an analysis 985 studies of the effects of declining pH levels, oceans becoming more neutral, otherwise known as ocean acidification, of marine organisms that form calcium carbonate. Many calcifiers are found to be tolerant to near-future ocean acidification. Over 70% of the 5153 observations in growth and calcification are non-negative, implying those organisms would be stable or grow in response to declining pH levels. The paper’s conclusions state “While ocean acidification is a challenge to the survival of calcifiers, it also brings an opportunity for those with a great acclimation capacity to thrive in the community. Given the benefits of compensatory mechanisms, we are cautiously optimistic that a majority of calcifiers would be able to prevail in the acidifying ocean. The ever-increasing global awareness to mitigate anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in the near future also increases the likelihood of this scenario. We expect that calcifiers with a limited acclimation capacity would inevitably be eliminated by ocean acidification, but their ecological roles would be taken over by tolerant calcifiers so that the functioning of marine ecosystems can be sustained.”

 

Is the Jet Stream Connected to Simultaneous Heat Waves?

This article says that deadly heat waves in Europe, the U.S. and China in July have one thing in common: a peculiar shape in the jet stream dubbed “wavenumber 5.” Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The winds blow from west to east but the flow often shifts to the north and south. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Changes in the position of the jet stream are the leading driver of our weather. When the jet stream bends into five waves, known as the ‘wavenumber 5 pattern’, it leads to heatwaves across the northern hemisphere. The pattern tends to remain in the same place when they form. The article says the jet stream appears to be slowing down in summer. The warming of the Arctic region appears to the cause of this slowdown.

 

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Decline Slows

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent slowed down from 103,600 km²/yr over 2000 to 2012 to 31,300 km²/yr over 2012 to 2021. All values were calculated by linear regressions. The annual decline over the latter period is only 30% of the previous period.  This graph shows the monthly and annual Arctic sea ice extent from 2000 to July 2022.  The data is from here. September, which has the lowest sea ice extent, increased by 2,500 km²/yr over 2012 to 2021. September is the only month with an increase of sea ice extent.  The monthly range of sea ice extent changes is from -95,600 for October to +2,500 km²/yr for September. The average CO₂ concentrations over the two periods increased by 6.5%. The sea ice extent decline was reduced by 70% despite the CO₂ increase of 6.5% over the two periods.

 

The Planetary Theory of Solar Activity Variability

The climate appears to be characterized by a large number of oscillations that should be induced by various solar and astronomic oscillations. Understanding the interconnection between the solar system's gravitational oscillations, solar oscillations, and the climatic ones is the key for really understanding and predicting climatic changes. This paper says that the high synchronization of our planetary system is already nicely revealed by the fact that the ratios of the planetary orbital radii are closely related to each other. The authors show that many planetary harmonics are not randomly distributed but clearly tend to cluster around some specific values that also match those of the main solar activity cycles. The abstract says “Although planetary tidal forces are weak, we review a number of mechanisms that could explain how the solar structure and the solar dynamo could get tuned to the planetary motions.”

 

Great Barrier Reef Breaks Coral Cover Record Again

This press release says “Official data released today reveals that Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is in excellent health, with coral cover reaching record levels for the second consecutive year.” Coral reef expert Dr. Peter Ridd said “In recent years, the media around the world has been reporting coral bleaching events in increasingly apocalyptic terms. This data proves that they are simply scaremongering.” The data shows clearly how a handful of coral bleaching events that have affected the reef since 2016 have had very limited impact on overall coral cover. Dr. Ridd’s recent paper is titled “The Good News on Coral Reefs”. Coral cover is the percentage of the seabed that is covered with coral. The average coral cover of 15 years from 1986 to 2021 is 21%. The current coral cover of mid 2022 is 33.9%.

 

The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis

Javier Vinós and Andy May published two articles on the sun-climate effect. Part I discusses the history of searches for sun – climate correlations. In 1980 scientists reported that wind speed and temperature near the tropopause during winter were responding to the solar cycle, but in 1983 they declared their result statistically insignificant. Spacecraft measurements have established that the total radiative output of the Sun varies at 0.1–0.3% which is too small to be significant. However, equatorial stratospheric winds were found to modulate global air circulation. The winds are known as Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) because they alternate directions about every two years. Solar UV radiation acts on the ozone layer in the stratosphere, changing the strength of the polar vortex which is modulation by the QBO. A high correlation was found between surface polar temperatures segregated according to the QBO phase. These advances are not discussed in most climate papers; they are simply ignored.

Part II discusses the solar effects on several climate phenomena. Proxy climate records of the Holocene often display a clear association with proxy solar records. Roger Bray in 1968 discovered a 2500-year climate cycle which he associated with changes in solar activity. Most paleoclimate researchers agree with this interpretation. While the global average surface temperature increase with the solar cycle is of only 0.1 °C, at 60°N it reaches 0.4 °C. An analysis showed that the La Niña occurrences, which took place during times of rising solar activity from 1950 to 2018, have only a 0.7% probability of being due to chance, demonstrating that ENSO is modulated by solar activity. Solar activity also affects the Earth’s speed of rotation. Changes in the atmospheric angular momentum of the troposphere and stratosphere account for over 90% of the changes in length of the day.

 

ENSO Impact on the Declining CO2 Sink Rate

Dr. Roy Spencer has posted a paper (not yet peer-reviewed) shows that a simple time-dependent CO2 budget model gives a declining CO2 sink rate, but accounting for ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) activity during 1959-2021, the CO2 sink rate becomes stable. This is contrary to multiple previous studies that claimed to account for ENSO. Spencer is inviting the researchers to poke holes in my analysis. The paper was submitted to Geophysical Research Letters for peer review.  We’ll have to wait and see if the paper passes peer-review.

 

CliSci # 373                                       2022-07-29

 

Ocean Atmosphere Response to Solar EMR at Top of the Atmosphere

Richard Willoughby explains the ocean surface temperature response to solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The article shows that “the ocean surface is temperature constrained to the range -1.8 °C to 30 °C over a yearly cycle apart from less than 1% of the ocean surface near land masses in the tropics where the deep convection cycle is disrupted.”  The amount of clouds increases as temperatures approach 30 °C to allow the incoming sunlight to evaporate just enough water required to power the deep convection driving global air circulation. This causes a sea surface temperature limit which the author compares to the speed governor on an engine.  Sunlight is being restricted by reflection from the brightening cloud cover with rising temperature until the 30 °C limit is reached.  The actual temperature measurement in the Nino34 region in the tropical Pacific is compared with the output from climate models that all predicted warming where there has been none. The Nino34 region is used to monitor the El Niño and La Niña cycles.

 

Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration Forecast through 2100

Using a simple CO₂ budget model with new estimates of global CO₂ emissions, Roy Spencer estimates that CO₂ concentrations will barely double pre-industrial levels by 2100. He also shows that the CO₂ concentrations will be significantly lower than the IPCC’s RCP6.0 forecast by 2100, and very much below the extreme scenario RCP8.5 used in alarmist literature. The global CO₂ emissions used in the model are the 2021 EIA estimate to 2050, then assuming the 2050 increase remains the same to 2100.   The model uses yearly sources and sinks of atmospheric CO₂ to compute how much the atmospheric CO₂ concentration changes from one year to the next. The sink (removal) of “excess” atmospheric CO₂ assumes that all of the biological and geophysical processes that remove CO₂ from the atmosphere do so at a net rate proportional to the excess of the CO₂ value above some ‘equilibrium’ value. The model was calibrated to the Mauna Loa CO₂ data from 1959 through 2021. This chart shows the forecast of the CO₂ model and the IPCC scenarios.

 

New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’

A new report (37 MB) was published that shows the USA temperature surface stations are corrupted by heat biases because they are located in man-made hot spots. A summary of the report says “A new study, Corrupted Climate Stations: The Official U.S. Surface Temperature Record Remains Fatally Flawed, finds approximately 96 percent of U.S. temperature stations used to measure climate change fail to meet what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) considers to be ‘acceptable’ and  uncorrupted placement by its own published standards.” The report was compiled by satellite and in-person survey visits to NOAA weather stations that contribute to the “official” land temperature data in the United States. These stations measurements are corrupted by localized effects of urbanization, producing heat-bias because of their close proximity to asphalt, machinery, and other heat-producing, heat-trapping, or heat-accentuating objects. Anthony Watts, the director of the study, said “Data from the stations that have not been corrupted by faulty placement show a rate of warming in the United States reduced by almost half compared to all stations.”

 

Northern Vegetation Greening Causes Cooler Summers

This study reports that from 1982-2014 Northern Hemisphere greening led to warmer winters (2 months of the year), but land surface cooling for the other 10 months. The overall greening-induced cooling reduced Northern Hemisphere temperatures by -0.14 °C during this period, as the summer (June-August) cooling amounted to a “strong and significant” -0.044 °C per decade. The rising greening trends in the last four decades are attributed mostly to the CO₂ fertilization effect that enhances photosynthesis. The authors performed simulations with a land-atmosphere model. They show that summer greening effectively dampens northern warming by about -0.15 °C for 1982–2014 due to enhanced evapotranspiration. The effect is less during spring and autumn because the evaporative cooling is counterbalanced by radiative warming from albedo and water vapor feedbacks. The greening-triggered energy imbalance is propagated forward by atmospheric circulation to subsequent seasons and causes sizable time-lagged climate effects. Also see here.

 

Temperature-related Mortality Risks in England and Wales

This paper presents an analysis to the relation between air temperature and mortality across England and Wales. The analysis included 10,716,879 deaths from all causes. The assessment estimated that each year in England and Wales, there was on average  about 790 excess deaths attributable to heat and about 60,600 attributable to cold. That is an astonishing excess deaths ratio of 76 cold-related deaths per warm-related death. The risks increased with age and were highly heterogeneous geographically, with the minimum mortality temperature ranging from 14.9°C to 22.6°C. Heat-related mortality was higher in urban areas, whereas cold-related mortality showed a more nuanced geographical pattern and increased risk in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation.

 

Little Evidence of Changes in Extreme Weather

A new paper by Dr. Alexander finds that the IPCC’s recent shift in methodology has led to misleading claims about changes in weather extremes. The review finds that IPCC claims that many of these weather extremes are increasing significantly are largely unsupported by observational evidence. Alexander says “On almost every kind of extreme weather, with the possible exemption of heatwaves, the evidence for significant changes is scant. But the latest IPCC report has introduced novel ‘attribution’ statistics and now insists that things are getting worse. It’s yet another case of scientists trying to scare the public into compliance.”

The IPCC claim that agricultural and ecological droughts are increasing is wrong. Several recent research studies have confirmed the lack of any long-term trend in drought worldwide. AR6 says the proportion of major tropical cyclones has increased since 1980 but this is due to improvements in measurement capabilities since 1970, and is unlikely to be a genuine climate trend. A statement in AR6 that cold extremes have become less frequent and severe is also wrong.

 

Most Hudson Bay Polar Bears are still Offshore, Excellent Ice Conditions for Late July

With only a few days until the end of July, most Western Hudson Bay polar bears are still on a thick band of thick first year ice that remains close to shore, says Dr. Susan Crockford on her blog. The few bears that have come off the ice appear to be nice and fat, indicating they had good spring feeding conditions. Polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher claims that bears throughout their range stay on the ice as long as possible and only come ashore as a ‘last resort’. Crockford says the claim doesn’t square with several observations of bears on shore (July 15 & 25) even though ice was still present offshore. By July 28, 70% of the almost two dozen tagged bears near Churchill, Manitoba, were still on the ice. Crockford presents charts of Hudson Bay sea ice; indicating the ice cover is similar to the same day in 2009.

 

CliSci # 372                                       2022-07-13

 

Dinosaurs Took Over Earth Amid Ice, Not Warmth

This article discusses a new paper which shows that the end-Triassic mass extinction during an abrupt cooling killed most reptiles, allowing insulated dinosaurs adapted to cold to flourish and dominate the Earth. Big reptiles ruled the Earth until the mass extinction 202 million years ago. The Triassic Period was hot and humid as was the following Jurassic Period which was the start of the age of dinosaurs. The Triassic dinosaurs were a minor group largely relegated to the Polar Regions at the time, regularly endured freezing conditions there. The authors of the study explain that during the extinction, cold snaps already happening at the poles spread to lower latitudes, killing off the cold-blooded reptiles. Dinosaurs, which had already adapted, survived the evolutionary bottleneck and spread out. Dinosaurs were fundamentally cold-adapted animals. When it got cold everywhere, they were ready, and other animals weren’t. At the end of the Triassic, a geologically brief period of perhaps a million years saw the extinction of more than three-quarters of all terrestrial and marine species on the planet. Many scientists connect it to a series of massive volcanic eruptions that could have lasted hundreds of years at a stretch. The eruptions would have belched sulfur aerosols that deflected so much sunlight, they caused repeated global volcanic winters that overpowered high greenhouse-gas levels. The study is based on recent excavations in the remote desert of northwest China’s Junggar Basin.

 

Climate Change ‘Cuts Cyclone Frequency’

A new paper published in the journal Nature Climate Change shows that climate change is reducing the frequency of tropical cyclones. This summary of the paper says that about 13% fewer cyclones are forming each year than before the mid-1800s, and the decline has accelerated since the 1950s. “The findings are based on the careful reconstruction of a global, long-term record of tropical cyclone frequency stretching back to the mid-1800s.” The researchers say the global warming has “affected atmospheric circulation, making it harder for cyclones to form.”  They claim that the new study gives a better indication of the global warming impact on cyclone frequency than data from the satellites era which only go back 50 years.  Here is a graph of hurricane frequency from 1982. Note: The terms hurricane and cyclones are used interchangeably when used in the global context. Otherwise, hurricanes are tropical storms in the North Atlantic and NE Pacific oceans; cyclones in the South Pacific and Indian oceans; typhoons in the NW Pacific Ocean.

 

Precipitation in NE Mexico Controlled by Atlantic SST Warming

This paper contradicts climate models and tree ring studies by showing that warming of the Atlantic Ocean will increase precipitation in NE Mexico. The authors use geochemical markers of past rainfall in a rock from a cave (speleothem) to show that warming in Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SST) increases the amount of precipitation in Northeast Mexico. Previous rainfall reconstructions using tree rings have suggested a warmer Atlantic decreases precipitation in the region. They used a forced-SST climate model to show that warming in the Atlantic increases precipitation during the summer but decreases precipitation during the winter. Although winter precipitation only accounts for 8% of annual rainfall in this region, tree rings are more reflective of the winter precipitation response. The paper demonstrates how badly climate models simulate the real world.

 

Early Holocene Temperature and Glacial Changes in SE Greenland

This study used a sediment core from southeast Greenland to assess temperatures and sediment rafting from icebergs caved from glaciers. The early Holocene warming (9100 to 4500 years ago) in SE Greenland was caused by a combination of high solar insolation and a weakened subpolar gyre. High levels of iceberg rafting occurred during the early Holocene. The warm surface conditions were interrupted by a marked and short-lived increase in sea ice around 8200 years ago. Sea-ice cover increases after 4500 years ago due to decreased summer solar insolation. Judith Curry wrote about the paper “There’s only been “limited retreat” of SE Greenland glaciers since the 1600s-1800s maximum. The same region was “ice free” during the Early Holocene. Iceberg rafting (due to warmer temps, glacier melt) and low sea ice are also less common now.”

 

June In Tokyo, Hachijojima Island Hasn’t Warmed In Decades

June mean temperatures in urban Tokyo haven’t increased since 1996 according to data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. June mean temperatures in rural Hachijojima island, located in the middle of the ocean 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, haven’t increased since 1936 as indicated by the horizontal best-fit line through the data.  Kirye produced temperature charts here.  A comparison of the mean daily maximum temperatures of urban Tokyo and rural Hachijojima gives strong evidence of the urban heat island effect. While the mean daily maximum temperature for Hachijojima has risen modestly (0.044 °C/decade) over the past 115 years, Tokyo has seen an almost 2°C linear trend (1.89 °C/decade) increase.

 

Thermodynamics of the Climate System

Physics Today published an article based on the authors’ recent article “The climate system and the second law of thermodynamics,” published in January 2022.  They wrote “To understand Earth’s climate, think of it as a giant, planetary-scale heat engine that drives the circulation of the oceans and atmosphere.” Although the climate is approximately steady, it is far from thermodynamic equilibrium, which would be a very cold and boring state with no motion. Instead, the climate system may be thought of as an engine, fueled by the unequal distribution of solar radiation incident upon it. It is those gradients in energy, and the resulting gradients in temperature and pressure they produce, that allow the wind to blow. For the climate system, the ultimate source is the Sun, with outer space acting as the sink. The work is performed internally and produces winds and ocean currents. One can think of a developing cumulus cloud as a heat engine that does work on itself and the surrounding atmosphere. The total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will increase with warming. If the magnitude of moist processes also increases with the vapor content, scientists might expect the climate heat engine to become less efficient on a warmer planet. A study of global climate models shows that, indeed, the mechanical efficiency of simulated future climates may go down and decrease the net energy available to drive winds. More detailed modeling on local scales, however, shows the opposite. Which one is right? Climate science isn’t settled yet!

 

A Jurassic Record Encodes Abrupt Climate Changes at ~1,500-year Periodicity

A new study suggests “abrupt and severe changes in Earth’s past climate” have been occurring at ~1,500-year periodicities since the iceless Jurassic period. Earth’s past climate exhibits short-term (1500-year) pronounced fluctuations during the last glacial period, called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) glacial events. Similar events haven’t previously been detected before two million years ago. The study shows a prominent 1500-year cyclicity in a Jurassic (~ 155 million years ago) ice-free sedimentary record which are analogous to DO events. The cycles are encoded in high-resolution magnetic susceptibility proxy data. Several studies suggest internal drivers of DO events from periodic calving of the Greenland ice sheet, and oscillations in the atmosphere–ocean system. The record of the ~ 1,500 year equivalent climate cycle during the ice-free Late Jurassic epoch further reinforces its global nature, and suggests that the primary exciting force is independent to ice-sheet dynamics. The authors suggest that Milankovitch forcing can modulate the DO analogous climate cycles by driving the monsoon system. The abstract says “Paleogeographic reconstructions and atmosphere–ocean simulations further support the potential existence of strong, ancient monsoon circulations in the Tethyan Basin during the Jurassic.”

 

CliSci # 371                                       2022-06-25

 

Hurricane Risk is Real for Offshore USA Wind Turbines

A new paper published in Wind Energy Science evaluated the effects of hurricane wind gusts and wind veer (rapid change in wind direction with height) on wind turbine towers. The paper shows that these wind features in strong hurricanes can cause loads that are substantially in excess of the design loads. The paper says “Such wind fields have characteristics that may pose heretofore unforeseen structural challenges to offshore wind turbines” and “Simulations show that veer and direction change can dramatically increase loads on the blades and tower, in some cases by factors of 5 or more.” This paper references an earlier paper titled “Gusts and Shear Within Hurricane Eyewalls can Exceed Offshore Wind Turbine Design Standards” which reports that hurricane winds pose a substantial risk to wind turbines deployed in hurricane-prone regions. David Wojick writes at CFact about this paper “Simply put they found that hurricane wind gusts can hit an incredible 200 miles per hour, while wind towers are only designed to withstand 160 mph. If those extreme gusts hit an offshore wind farm, catastrophe is pretty much guaranteed.”  David wrote “Before we build tens or hundreds of billions of dollars worth of massive offshore wind facilities off the East Coast [of the USA] we need to be sure that they will withstand strong hurricanes. (It may well be that even Category 4 hurricanes will exceed today’s design standards.) Otherwise both the ratepayers and the grid will be at great risk.”

The White House on June 23 launched a formal partnership with 11 East Coast governors to boost the growing offshore wind industry, a key element of President Joe Biden’s plan for climate change. Biden has set a goal of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030. Apparently they haven’t read the research.

 

Net-Zero — Ross McKitrick: Junk Science Has Led to Junk Policies

Policy makers have made it effectively impossible for the private sector to keep up with consumer demands for fossil fuel products. The same policy makers are now blaming the private sector for the inevitable price hikes. Ross McKitrick’s article published in the Financial Post says that while there is rhetoric about climate change being an existential threat, “Most economists, by contrast, view the climate-change cost of fossil fuel use as a relatively small side effect that should not stand in the way of continued enjoyment of the global benefits of inexpensive and reliable energy.” Nobel Prize winner economist William Nordhaus showed that aggressive emission reductions were costlier than doing nothing and that the optimal course of action would be to reduce emissions to only slightly below the business-as-usual case. A survey of climate economists found from 445 responses that the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) was estimated to be US$40 per tonne of CO₂ emissions in 2020. This translates to 11 cents per litre. McKitrick wrote “What is important here is not whether you think the estimates are correct, but what the survey reveals about the consensus view among economists who specialize in climate change.” This would cause the optimal consumer response. Since this would cause only a small reduction of consumption, “the optimal response to climate change is to keep using fossil fuels almost as much as if carbon dioxide wasn’t a greenhouse gas.”

 

Quest Carbon Capture and Storage

The Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Project captures and stores underground one million tonnes of CO₂ emissions per year. The capture unit is located at the Scotford Upgrader in Alberta, Canada, where hydrogen is produced to upgrade bitumen from oil sands into synthetic crude oil. The Quest CCS annual Report  2020, revised August 2021 says “Total capital costs required to reach commercial operation on October 1, 2015 were approximately $790 million. The Annual report 2020 shows that the average annual operating costs 2017-2020 calendar years were $29,700/yr. The project life is estimated at 25 years, which is the total project injection of 27 MtCO₂ divided by 1.08 MtCO₂/yr injection. Note that the project also emits CO₂, so the net CO₂ emissions avoided is 0.84 MtCO₂/yr, averaged over 2016-2020. A Shell news release of July 9, 2020 says “Quest received $865 million from the governments of Canada and Alberta to build and operate the facility.” This was $120 million from Canada’s Clean Energy Fund and $745 from Prov. of Alberta. The report shows the cost per tonne of emissions avoided was $125/tCO₂. The average cost over 2017-2020 was $108.4/tCO₂. This is an outrageously high cost. For comparison, as given in Ross McKitrick’s article above, climate economist’s consensus estimate of the SCC is about US$40, or C$50 per tonne CO₂. Considering more reasonable climate sensitivity estimates and the large beneficial effects of CO₂ fertilization, it is likely that the SCC is net negative, that is the benefits likely exceeds the social costs.

 

Recent Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the United States

This new paper examines the trends in heat-related mortality across the United States for the period 1975–2018 in 107 metropolitan areas. The abstract says “The decrease in heat vulnerability continues among those 65 and older across most of the country, which may be associated with improved messaging and increased awareness. These decreases are offset in many locations by an increase in mortality among men 45–64 (+1.3 deaths per year), particularly across parts of the southern and southwestern United States.” Previous decades indicate significant declines in heat vulnerability. However, in more recent years, this trend has stagnated or even reversed in some locations for among middle-aged males. In the United States, air-conditioning prevalence reached 87% with most newer homes having central air conditioning. Another study found that a 1.37% decrease in heat-related mortality is associated with a 50% increase in air conditioning prevalence.

 

U.S. Climate Reference Network

The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) is a network of climate monitoring stations with sites across the contiguous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii. These stations use high-quality instruments to measure temperature, precipitation and other climate variables. The network includes 114 commissioned stations in the contiguous United States. NOAA publishes a temperature index for the contiguous US starting in January 2005. The sites were established in rural locations that are not expected to be influenced by urban influences. The contiguous U.S. temperature trends of the daily maximum and daily average temperatures from January 2005 to May 2022 are 0.36 °C/decade and 0.34 °C/decade, respectively. The trends of the maximum, minimum and average daily temperatures are almost the same whereas globally, the daily maximum trends are lower than the daily minimum trends. The lower troposphere temperature trend of the contiguous U.S. from January 2005 to May 2022 was negative at ‑0.18 °C/decade while the surface was warming at 0.34 °C/decade as shown on this graph. On a global basis over the same period, the lower troposphere trend was 90% of the surface temperature trend. This behaviour is contrary to the climate models that consistently project the lower troposphere warming faster than the land surfaces.

 

Thawing Permafrost In Sweden Releases Less Methane Than Feared

A study in northern Sweden found that melting permafrost released one tenth as much methane as expected, suggesting emissions from thawing Arctic tundra could be less than previously feared. Once Arctic permafrost melts, microbes are able to consume the once-frozen organic matter trapped in the soil. As a byproduct of this process, microbes produce large amounts of methane. As ice melts underground, water on the surface began to sink down into the soil. As the surface dried out, new plants emerged that helped keep methane emissions buried underground.  Soil bacteria have more time to break it down and convert it into CO₂ which appears to stay in the ground, scientists observed. “The study has shown that there isn’t necessarily a large burst of methane as might have been expected in the wake of a thaw,” said Bo Elberling, a co-author of the study.

 

Severe Drought Impacting the Colorado River Basin in the Second Century

The Colorado River area is experiencing a severe drought in the context of the 116-year gage record. A paper as summarized in this news release presents a new tree-ring based ensemble streamflow reconstruction spanning the last two millennia for the Colorado River. The new reconstruction reveals a second-century drought unmatched in severity by any past droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The lead author said “While there has been research showing extended dry periods in the southwest back to the eighth century, this reconstruction of the Colorado River extends nearly 800 years further into the past." The research finds that compared to the current 22-year drought in the Colorado River, with only 84% of the average water flow, the water flow during a 22-year period in the second century was much lower, just 68% of the average water flow. The results of this work can provide water managers with an increased understanding of the range of flow variability in the Colorado River.

 

CliSci # 370                                       2022-06-09

 

Biases in Climate Fingerprinting Methods

Dr. Ross McKitrick published an article showing that a statistical procedure called “optimal fingerprinting” used to estimate the effect of greenhouse gases in climate data is biased.  A method called Total Least Squares (TLS) in optimal fingerprinting regression was recommended in 2003. McKitrick says in most cases the TLS method has an upward bias when comparing a set of climate observations to a set of climate model generated analogues which selectively include or exclude greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This bias overstates the influences of GHG. McKitrick published a new paper in Climate Dynamics critiquing the use of TLS in fingerprinting applications. The bias results from random noise or errors in both the observational data and the outputs of climate models. McKitrick wrote “In every econometrics textbook of which I am aware, the recommended treatment for EIV [the noise error] is Instrumental Variables estimation, which can be shown to yield unbiased and consistent coefficient estimates.” TLS is never used in economics or science outside of climatology.

 

Antarctic Sea Ice Decline May Be Due To Natural Factors

Climate models cannot simulate the causative mechanisms for sea ice variability. Over recent decades Antarctic sea ice extent has increased, but Earth system climate modes generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. There were short term declines in sea ice extent from 2016 to 2020. This new study shows that natural processes are the dominate cause of sea ice variability in the Southern Hemisphere. In April, 2019, a cargo ship was perilously stuck in sea ice in the Southern Ocean’s Lazarev Sea. A causal mechanism analysis affirms that an anomalous series of “explosive polar cyclones” led to about a 10 °C sea surface temperature increase in the region, melting the ice surrounding the ship sufficiently enough to free it from the ice trap.

 

Clouds Haven’t Behaved the Way the IPCC or the Models Say

Michael Jonas has published a paper that shows the patterns of clouds and temperature indicate that the cloud cover decrease since 1987 could not have been caused by the increased surface temperature. He publishes a summary of his paper. The latest versions of most climate models show increased climate sensitivity to CO₂ by assuming that the recent decrease of cloud cover was due to increasing temperatures which amplifies the direct CO₂ warming effect. Cloud and temperature patterns over short time scales (a few months) indicate that warmer temperatures cause more cloud, not less. The paper shows that cloud area decreased, while cloud optical thickness increased. But cloud area decreased very similarly over sea and land, while cloud thickness increased much more over sea than over land. Jonas concludes “Evaluation of changes in both clouds and CO₂ in the study period 1983-2017 indicate that cloud changes caused by this unspecified factor had a similar impact to that of the increase in CO₂, with respect to the increase in radiation reaching the surface (radiative forcing), and possibly a much larger impact. The climate models, which have zero or negative cloud impact independently from CO₂, need to take this into account in order to avoid over-estimating the influence of CO₂.”

The “unspecified factor” is likely the dramatic reduction in the aerosols. Examples of such aerosols include dust, volcanic ash, and smoke. According to the TOMS aerosol index, the amount of aerosols was 1.16 in 1983. It declined to 0.74 in 1996, 0.49 in 1999 and to 0.15 in 2001. This decline of aerosols resulted is less cloud condensation aerosols and less cloud cover. The brightening of the sky contributed to increasing global temperatures.

 

Global Fire Burned Area Plummets

The European Space Agency funded a project to measure the global fire area burned from 1982.  Researcher Zoe Phin found global fire area burned data and produced a graph here. The global area burned has plummeted from 5.5 million km² in 2002 to 4.2 million km² in 2018. Zoe wrote “It’s obvious that carbon dioxide has zero effect on fires. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar, an imbecile, or just plain ignorant. The latter can be cured.”  The reduction of global area burned would result is less smoke, less cloud condensation aerosols and less cloud cover.

 

How Climatists Eclipsed the Sun

Dr. John Robson of the Climate Discussion Nexus (CDN) interviewed CERES co-team leader, Dr. Ronan Connolly, on the role of the Sun in recent climate change.  Robson published a 20 minute video featuring the interview. Ron Clutz wrote a blog post that provides a summary of the video and the interview. CDN have now published their 20 minute “explainer” video including extracts from this interview and discussion of some of CERES’ recent scientific research. The video explains the significance of the debates between the two main rival satellite estimates of solar activity trends since 1978, i.e., PMOD and ACRIM. There is a gap in the satellite record that was due to a delay in launching a new ACRIM satellite after the 1986 space shuttle challenger disaster. The delay caused a gap of two years in the ACRIM system that measures solar irradiance. The only data available to fill the gap was from a different monitor called the earth radiation budget (ERB) system which wasn’t designed to monitor the Sun.  It had little precision and only had a view of the sun during brief intervals of its orbit. The ACRIM record suggested an increase in solar irradiance from the early 1980s through to the end of the 1990s. A rival group called PMOD claimed that the ERB sensors experienced an increase in its sensitivity over the gap period, so they adjusted downward the second ACRIM satellite data to show a decline of solar intensity. Dr. Douglas Hoyt, the scientist who had been in charge of the ERB satellite mission, said “there is no known physical change in the electrically calibrated [system] that could have caused it to become more sensitive. And no one has ever come up with a physical theory for the instrument that could cause it to become more sensitive. The IPCC reports have downplayed the role of solar activity in recent climate change by using only the PMOD solar irradiance interpretation.

 

Hurricane Activity Close To Lowest On Record

Dr. Roger Peilke Jr. wrote “The past 12 months have seen close to the fewest tropical cyclones of major hurricane frequency in more than 40 years” based on hurricane frequency data compiles by Dr. Ryan Maue. The 12 month running sum of major hurricane frequency (> 96 knots) was 15 as of May 27, 2022. The last time it was this low was in 1987 when it was 14. The major hurricane frequency was 39 at December 2015. The 12 month sum of all hurricanes (> 64 knots) was also at the fewest in more than 40 years except for the year 2009.  The current all hurricane frequency is 36, down from 55 in 2016 and 65 in 1990. Contrary to the climate alarmists, there is no meaningful correlation between hurricane frequency and global temperature. A graph of 24 month running sum of global hurricane energy, which combines the intensity and frequency is also very low as of February 28, 2022.

 

CliSci # 369                                       2022-05-23

 

Time to Ditch Climate Models?

Steven Hayward wrote an article that criticized climate models for running far too hot. Just about every projected environmental catastrophe going back to the population bomb of the late 1960s has depended on computer models, all of which turned out to be wrong, sometimes by an order of magnitude. The confidence in computer models of climate has declined as it has become widely known that the models are running hot which implies their temperature projections are too high. A new paper published by Nature acknowledges that computer climate models have major problems and project warming greater than that supported by evidence. If climate models are improving one would expect their projections to converge, but the opposite has happened. There is more divergence among the models and the uncertainty is increasing. Most climate models can’t even predict the past. The direct warming effect of doubling greenhouse gases (GHG) in only 1.1 °C but many models predict more than 4.5 °C by including too strong positive feedbacks from water vapour and clouds. The IPCC technical report of AR6 candidly admits huge uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. Many important climate phenomena occur on scales smaller than the 100 square kilometer grid size, such as thunderstorms, so the upper atmosphere drying effect of them with warming is not simulated. GHG “emissions forecasts made 20 just years ago turned out to be much too high for today. Nearly all of the most alarming claims of the effects of future warming depend on these discredited forecasts, but the media has failed to keep up with the changing estimates. It’s a classic garbage-in, garbage out problem.”

 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Is Insensitive to Freshwater Forcing

Freshwater forcing due to melting Arctic ice is identified as the dominant mechanism causing reductions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This paper published in Nature shows a muted AMOC response to freshwater forcing in the early-to-middle Holocene 11,700 to 6,000 years ago. Including this muted AMOC response in a transient simulation of the Holocene with an ocean–atmosphere climate model improves the agreement between simulated and proxy temperatures of the past 21,000 years. This demonstrates that the AMOC may not be as sensitive to Arctic freshening as is currently projected for the end of the twenty-first century. The AMOC transports warm water from the tropics to Polar Regions were the warmth can more easily escape by radiation to space due to the lower concentrations of water vapour at high latitudes. Incorporating this result in climate models would increase the AMOC’s cooling effect and reduce temperature projections.

 

United Kingdom Weather Has Become, If Anything, Less Extreme

UK weather trends have changed very little in recent decades and have become, if anything, less extreme, according to a new paper published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. A review of official weather data by climate researcher Paul Homewood shows that while very cold winters are now very rare, heatwaves have not been increasing. Similarly, there have been fewer droughts in recent decades, but we are not seeing more wet years, wet months, or wet days. Paul Homewood says “The UK’s weather is becoming, if anything,  less extreme. We are still waiting for evidence of a ‘climate crisis’ that politicians and environmentalists claim is upon us. But observational data shows that in the UK there is no evidence for any worsening weather trends.” Homewood also notes that storms are not an increasing problem either, with extreme winds having been on the decline for 30 years. Although temperatures rose between the 1980s and early 2000s, average temperatures have remained stable since then. Heatwaves in 1975 and 1976 were much more intense than anything that has followed. Met Office data clearly shows that wind storms have declined in strength since the 1980s. Sea levels around the UK have risen at a rate of about 1.5 mm/yr, after allowing for vertical land movement.

 

The Role of Vegetation in Reducing Thermal Stress in Urban Areas

Scientists conducted an empirical study in Würzburg, Germany from 2018 to 2020 to assess the impact of trees on city temperatures. The study showed that vegetation cover of approximately 40% is needed to bring about lower summer temperatures. The abstract says “Mean air temperatures of inner city sites were higher by 1.3 °C during summer and 5 °C during winter compared to sub-urban sites. The magnitude followed the spatial land use patterns, in particular the amount of buildings. Consequently, out of 97 hot days (Temperature > 30 °C) in 3 years, 9 days above the extreme threshold of wet bulb globe temperature of 35 °C were recorded at a centre location compared to none at a sub-urban site. Extreme heat stress could be halved with 30–40% cover of greenspaces including grass lawns, green roofs, and green walls with little compromise in increasing winter cold stress.” This summary of the study says that trees cool their immediate vicinity by 1 to 8 °C and increase the relative humidity of the air. This occurs through the evaporation of water through the leaves during food production.

 

Climate Change is Not Worsening Drought

This article by Linnea Lueken criticized a recent Time magazine article that falsely claimed that climate change is increasing the severity and number of droughts around the world. In fact, drought tracking data show no meaningful trend in severity or frequency of drought globally. The Time article contradicts the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and is refuted by real-world data. Regarding water scarcity, the UN remarks that there is actually “high confidence” in a trend of increasing precipitation over at least the mid-latitudes of the Earth. According to the IPCC AR6 report, there is limited evidence climate change has increased the number, duration, or intensity of hydrological or meteorological droughts, and it has only medium confidence it has “contributed to changes in agricultural and ecological droughts and has led to an increase in the overall affected land area.” The only regions of the Amazon that currently suffer drought are those where deforestation has occurred. Lueken says “Time’s narrative may advance the UN’s money-hungry agenda, but does not advance the truth.”

 

Climate at a Glance: Livestock and Methane

Climate activists often claim that ranchers, livestock, and meat production are a leading cause of rising greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. However, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has compiled information on greenhouse gas emissions by source. According to EPA, beef production accounts for 2% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, while livestock production accounts for less than 4% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This is the case even though the United States leads the world in beef production. Livestock primarily impact greenhouse gas emissions through methane released when livestock burp or pass gas. Although this is often presented as a serious problem, data show U.S. methane emissions have fallen over the past three decades. According to EPA, methane emissions dropped 16.7% from 1990 to 2020.

 

CliSci # 368                                       2022-05-07

 

Friends of Science 19th Annual Event with Dr. Ian Plimer and Joanne Nova

Net-Zero + Green Grid = The Great Regret. The first part of this free virtual live-stream event with Dr. Ian Plimer was held on May 2, 2022. The video and presentation slides can be viewed from the Event Page. The second part with Joanne Nova will be held on Monday, May 9, 2022 at 7 P.M. MDT. Our host Michelle Stirling will introduce the event, followed by a playback of the pre-recorded video of our speaker presentation, and then the viewing audience can join in the live question and answer session. The presentation is titled “How to destroy a perfectly good electricity grid in one million expensive steps”. See our Event Page for more information.

 

Osman et al. 2021: a Flawed Nature Paleoclimate Paper

Independent climatologist Nic Lewis published a rebuttal of a new paleoclimate paper (Osman 2021) concerning global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) published by the journal Nature. Lewis says that Nature tends to publish papers that use novel and unverified statistical procedures, and their peer reviewers fail to spot problems with methods or calculations. The Osman 2021 paper claims that temperatures during the early Holocene about 9,000 years ago current are about 0.5 °C cooler than recent temperatures. This issue is important because the global temperature change between a faulty early Holocene temperature and either the LGM temperature or the preindustrial temperature would lead to faulty estimates of natural climate change and climate sensitivity.

Osman 2021 used a large selection of four types of sea surface temperature (SST) proxies. They estimated global temperatures by creating a proxy-only reconstruction and a data-assimilation reconstruction.  The proxy-only estimate was done by calculating a mean 60°S−60°N SST and scaling this to get a global air temperature. Lewis argues that the scaling factor used is incorrect as it is from old model simulations. Osman used a 1.90 scaling factor but newer data shows 1.64. The data-assimilation estimates use global climate models to convert the local temperatures from proxies to a global estimate. This is necessary because the proxies are not evenly distributed on the globe. The accuracy of the method “depends critically on the realism of the GCM simulations used”. Lewis concludes “I do not consider Osman 2021’s main LGMR, data-assimilation reconstruction, which estimates 6.8°C mean LGM cooling, to be reliable. It is highly dependent on the spatiotemporal accuracy of LGM simulations by a single GCM. The external validation tests, when analysed properly, show no significant skill by either the model simulation prior or the LGMR posterior in predicting observed LGM changes in independent cave speleothem records.”

 

Study Finds Significant Extreme Rainfall Bias

This new paper demonstrates that many studies of extreme rainfall are affected by large errors due to the failure to account for changing rainfall time resolutions of the records. The use of rainfall data with coarse time resolution can lead to significant underestimates of the maximum daily rainfall. A review by Heartland here says “The researchers examined data from 39 representative meteorological stations spanning central Italy over the past 100 years. Among the problems they found were that changes in recording systems and their location over time have resulted in an underestimation of historical rainfall amounts. If higher rainfall amounts occurred during extreme events in the past than was recorded, then any upward trend attributed to climate change in recent decades would be biased, inaccurately showing a steeper increase in rainfall amounts and trends during extreme events than occurred.”  Old rainfall records typically used coarse time resolution of one day while newer records use hourly or by minute resolution. The correction for the errors caused by changing time resolutions often changes the sign of the trend from positive to negative. Table 5 of the paper shows the average of 39 extreme rainfall trends are +0.029 mm/year before correction to ‑0.049 mm/yr after the correction. That is, the annual maximum 24 hr rainfall amounts in Italy are declining with warming, not increasing as is falsely claimed. “Therefore, before conducting any trend analysis from rainfall data characterized by coarse temporal resolution should always be corrected. Claims that extreme rainfall amounts are increasing at a dangerous or unusual rate due to climate change must be reconsidered.”

 

Burning Trees for Fuel Releases 39% More CO₂ Emissions than Coal

A new paper, Bloomer et al 2022, is a call to stop burning trees in the name of climate mitigation. A summary of the paper says “Burning trees and other forest biomass for energy is contrary to climate mitigation, biodiversity protection, and environmental justice goals. Governments must stop promoting climate-damaging forest bioenergy”. The journal article “explains how forest bioenergy has a substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint and will accelerate warming for decades. In fact, burning woody biomass releases more carbon dioxide (CO₂) than fossil fuels per unit of energy. It takes many decades for tree regrowth to offset those emissions. Plus relying on tree regrowth ignores the damage to natural forests from harvest – both to forests’ carbon sink capacity and biodiversity.” The paper criticizes the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive which assumes burning word causes zero net CO₂ emissions. Bioenergy accounts for around 60% of “renewable” energy in the EU. The authors argue that countries should end subsidies for and move away from forest bioenergy. Carbon neutrality assumes that the combustion of wood is compensated by the capture of CO₂ for tree growth. This is true only is static conditions which are not met in practice. The paper says “In 2015, the burning of forest biomass emitted 330–380 metric tons of CO₂ , which researchers estimate is around 100 metric tons more than would have been emitted by the fossil fuels that bioenergy replaced.” That implies that wood burning releases 39% [355/255 = 1.39] more CO₂ than fossil fuels.

 

Plant Growth Is Good, Not Climate Harm

U.S. News & World Report (USNWR) ran a story saying climate change is making life harder for allergy sufferers. Dr. H. Sterling Burnett wrote an article criticizing that story, saying that it lacks balance and context. Burnett wrote “The USNWR’s story ignores the more important point that the allergy season is longer because the planet is greening. Earlier springs and expanded areas of more verdant plant growth are good for the Earth’s human, animal, and insect populations.” A recent poll reported that about half of the allergy sufferers surveyed indicated they believed their allergies had become worse in recent years and half said their symptoms hadn’t changed. NASA satellite measurements show that the longer, warmer growing seasons with higher CO2 levels “are spurring a tremendous greening of the Earth. NASA reports these factors have produced a 10 percent increase in global plant life across the past 20 years.”  Slightly harder times for allergy sufferers are a small negative side effect of earlier springs and lusher plant growth, which is, on balance, is a huge positive.

 

CliSci # 367                                       2022-04-23

 

Friends of Science 19^th Annual Event with Dr. Ian Plimer and Joanne Nova

Net-Zero + Green Grid = The Great Regret. This FREE virtual live-stream event will be presented in two parts. Each part consists of a live introduction by host, Michelle Stirling of Friends of Science Society, followed by a playback of the pre-recorded video of our speaker presentation, and then the viewing audience can join in the live question and answer session moderated by our host. See the Event Promo video. See our Event Page for more information.

 

State of the Climate 2021: No Evidence of ‘Climate Crisis’

A systematic review of climate trends and observational data by an eminent climate scientist has found no evidence to support the claim of a climate crisis. Ole Humlum, emeritus professor at the University of Oslo, examined detailed patterns in temperature changes in the atmosphere and oceans together with trends in climate impacts. Many of these show no significant trends and suggest that poorly understood natural cycles are involved. While the report, published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, finds gentle warming, there is no evidence of dramatic changes, with snow cover stable, sea ice levels recovering, and no change in storm activity. GWPF director, Dr Benny Peiser said “It’s extraordinary that anyone should think there is a climate crisis. Year after year our annual assessment of climate trends document just how little has been changing in the last 30 years. The habitual climate alarmism is mainly driven by scientists’ computer modelling rather than observational evidence.” Three average surface air temperature estimates show the year 2021 to be cooler than most years since 2016. Since 2004, the upper 1900 m of the oceans have experienced a globally averaged net warming of about 0.07 °C, or just 0.04 °C/decade. Data from tide gauges all over the world suggest a stable rise of 1–2 mm per year.

 

Wind & Solar Energy Is Causing Population Declines in 11 Bird Species

A new study published by the Royal Society found the wind and solar energy facilities is causing bird populations to decline in 48% of the 23 vulnerable bird species studies in California. These 11 bird species are already experiencing population-level effects on their growth rates due to wind turbine and solar panel killings. The abstract says “Effects of renewables extended far beyond the location of energy production to impact bird populations in distant regions across continental migration networks.” There are currently about 59,000 wind turbines in the U.S. Large numbers of birds and bats are found dead at wind and solar energy projects. This article estimates a bird population decline in North America of 3 billion birds from all causes since 1970.  Many species are probably experiencing greater than 1000 fatalities per year in North America due to renewable energy. Of the 23 species studies, 11 experienced greater than 20% decline in population growth rates. The paper says “This study, therefore, emphasizes the importance of assessing the origins of wildlife affected when interpreting consequences to wildlife populations of these, or any, types of anthropogenic activities. … In the case of renewable energy, decisions about facility siting, investment and development, as well as management and mitigation actions, will be most effective if they consider both local and non-local impacts to focal species, and if their demographic frame of reference extends to breeding, wintering or stopover habitat far from where the facility is located.”

 

Washed Away – A Short Film About Sea Level Fall

Dr. Jennifer Marohasy produced a short film about sea level fall at Noosa National Park on the East coast of Australia. The park features a wave-cut platform etched out of the sandstone towards the bottom of the cliff faces. The sandstone is very old, thought to date from the time of the dinosaurs, perhaps 180 million years ago, but the ledges – referred to as platforms when they are wide – are much younger, about 125,000 years old. The wave-cut indicates that the sea level were higher in a bygone age. Despite sea level rise since the last ice age, sea levels are still lower than during the period known as the Eemian. Australia wasn’t covered in an ice sheet during the last ice age so Australia’s coast is not affected by glacial rebound. Scotland is rising while south England is sinking by to 0.6 mm/yr for the last 1,000 years. In just 80 years sea levels at Juneau, Alaska have fallen by 120 cm at a steady rate of minus 15 mm per year. Global sea level rise at the end of the last ice age occurred at a rate 10 times faster than the modern rate of about 3mm per year – which is about how much Scotland is rising due to isostatic rebound.

 

Tropical Methane Emissions Explain 80% of Last Decade Methane Growth

This paper published in Nature used satellite observation of methane from 2010 to show that tropical terrestrial emissions explain more than 80% of the observed changes in the global atmospheric methane growth rate over this period. Strong seasonal correlations were found between changes in tropical sea surface temperatures and variations in methane emissions over tropical South America and tropical Africa. From 2010 to 2019, the global atmospheric methane concentration increased by 4% from 1798 to 1866 ppb. The satellite data indicates that tropical Africa plays the largest role in the methane changes followed by tropical South America. Emissions from mainland and island nations of Southeast Asia have reduced over the period. There was no trend in emissions from Indian early in the study period, instead the analysis shows large year-to-year variations that peak during the 2014–2016 El Niño and again during 2017 and 2019.

 

Germany's Energy Fiasco

This article by Hans-Werner Sinn, professor emeritus of Economics at the University of Munich, discusses Germany’s energy fiasco. Policymakers in Germany expected that the country would be able to secure its energy supply entirely from renewable sources, so they resolved to phase out coal and nuclear energy simultaneously. But, in light of the war in Ukraine, the world is instead witnessing how Germany’s approach has created a policy disaster. To provide backup to intermittent solar and wind power, Germany decided to build a large number of additional gas-fired power plants. Russia supplied more than half of Germany’s natural gas needs. Germany expected to increase its gas imports from Russia from the now-suspended Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The excessive dependence on Russian gas has now become a security risk for Germany and the entire Western world. It limits the West’s chances of imposing further energy-related sanctions on Russia. Despite the fact that turbines and photovoltaic panels now dot much of the landscape, in 2021 the share of wind and solar power in Germany’s total energy consumption was only 6.7%. Ending Russian gas imports in an effort to squeeze Putin would also stifle the German economy.

 

CliSci # 366                                       2022-04-10

 

Warm European Climates Led to Lower Food Prices

A new paper titled “The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices” looked at the extent to which climate variability affected grain prices for barley, oats, rye, and wheat across Europe from the years 1500–1800. Grain was the most important food source during the period in Europe, providing 70% to 80% of the caloric intake for a majority of the population. The authors used a large grain price data set and long temperature and rainfall data sets. They made extensive use of correlation and spectral analysis methods. The abstract say “A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe.”  Temperatures explain 41% of the annual grain price variability and 63% on decadal time scales. The strongest temperature signals are obtained for the grain type means and the average of all 56 grain price series. Grain price variability only partly reflects harvest yield variations which also depend on non-climatic factors. Cold temperature reduces grain yields and increases grain prices, which frequently caused economic destitution, civil unrest, malnutrition, and even famines.  The paper also reports “Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices.”

 

Arctic Was Much Warmer 6000 Years Ago with Smaller Glaciers and Ice Caps Than Now

The northern extratropics was much warmer over much of the past 10,000 years than now. This paper published in the journal Climate of the Past, examined the Arctic glaciers and ice cap (GIC) over a large part of the Arctic from a synthesis of lake-based temperature reconstructions. This summary by P. Gosselin says “Using a comprehensive sampling of sediment cores extracted from 66 lakes and seas, the scientists reconstructed the melting and expansion of the Arctic ice over the past 12,000 years. What they found was that the Arctic was far warmer 6000 years ago than it is today.” The paper’s abstract says “the full Arctic compilation suggests that the majority (50 % or more) of studied GICs were smaller than present or absent by ∼10 ka. We find the highest percentage (>90 %) of Arctic GICs smaller than present or absent in the middle Holocene at ∼ 7–6 ka, probably reflecting more spatially ubiquitous and consistent summer warmth during this period than in the early Holocene. Following this interval of widespread warmth, our compilation shows that GICs across the Arctic began to regrow and summers began to cool by ∼6 ka. Together, the Arctic records also suggest two periods of enhanced GIC growth in the middle to late Holocene from ∼ 4.5–3 and after ∼2 ka.”

 

Wind Turbines Negatively Affects People, Birds and Bats

This article by Parker Gallant discusses several negative effects of industrial wind turbines. A wind energy company, a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, was ordered to pay more than US$8 million in fines and restitution after at least 150 eagles were killed over the past decade at its wind farms in eight states. The Canadian subsidiary sued a lady for posting a video on YouTube showing NextEra workers chopping down a tree with an active eagle nest in the Haldimand, Ontario area. She changed the company’s logo to read “NextError” and “Next Terror”. Chatham-Kent residents have been raising concerns for years after several water wells in the North Kent Wind farm area began getting clogged with sediments during and after 34 industrial wind turbines were erected. The well water quality became poor with high levels of total dissolved and suspended solids and iron. The residents blamed the vibrations from erecting the turbines, which involved driving piles into the Kettle Point black shale aquifer that the wells draw water from. A Bloomberg article reports that the rotor and three blades fell into the sea from an offshore wind farm in Denmark. The turbine manufacturer asked the authorities to stop all marine traffic near all of its sites that use those machines.

 

Data Shows Climate Change Is Not Making Storms Worse

An article by H. Sterling Burnett says that, contrary to a recent story published by WQAD, data show storms are not getting worst with warming. The WQAD story is misleading as it is based on climate model predictions, not storm data. Models overstate warming and for more than 30 years have consistently predicted increases in extreme weather that have failed to materialize. Global warming could cause fewer, less intense storms across the U.S.  The IPCC’s recent assessment report (AR6) reported no increase in the frequency or intensity of tornadoes during the period of modest warming. While the number of reported tornadoes has increased due to better reporting over the past 50 years, data from NOAA indicates the number of strong tornadoes has declined by over 50% during the period of warming since 1970. AR6 also reports no evidence that thunderstorms are becoming more extreme and there is no evidence winter storms are becoming more intense, delivering more powerful wind or greater amounts of snowfall. The extent of average North American snowpack has been virtually unchanged in recent years compared to the late 1960s.

 

CO₂ Airborne Fraction Has Decreased as CO₂ Sinks Grow Faster Than Emissions

About half of the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions remain in the atmosphere and half are taken up by the land and ocean. The airborne fraction is the ratio between the atmospheric growth rate and anthropogenic emissions of CO₂. Emission estimates due to land use changes contributes the most uncertainty to the airborne fraction. This paper published last month presents a land use change dataset using visibility data in deforestation zones. The authors’ results indicate that the CO₂ airborne fraction has decreased by 0.014 ± 0.010 per decade since 1959. This suggests that the combined land–ocean sink has been able to grow at least as fast as anthropogenic emissions. This implies that CO₂ concentrations in the air will increase slower for a given emissions scenario as more of those emissions will be sequestered by the land and oceans. This is contrary to climate models which all assume that the airborne fraction will increase over time.

 

Ancient El Niños Reveals Limits to Future Climate Projections

This article discusses a new study that shows the ENSO climate pattern varies over time to such a degree that it will be very difficult to detect if El Niño is getting stronger with global warming. The researchers analyzed 9,000 years of Earth’s climate history using ancient corals to determine how climate change may affect El Niño in the future. They found that although the occurrence of strong El Niño events slightly intensified over time, the change was small compared with El Niño's highly variable nature. The paper’s abstract says “Although the model diverges from the observed coral data regarding the exact magnitude of change, both indicate that modern ENSO variance eclipsed paleo-estimates over the Holocene, albeit against the backdrop of wide-ranging natural variability." A study co-author said “It's like trying to listen to soft music next to a jackhammer".

 

Wind Noise: A Continuing Issue (Night Amplification)

Sherri Lange wrote this article about a study by researchers of Flinders University, Australia, of the effects of wind farm noise on humans. The study found that the “swoosh” sound made by spinning turbine blades was likely to be more noticeable – and more annoying – to nearby residents during the night than during the day. The research combined long-term monitoring of wind farm noise with machine learning to quantify and characterize the noise produced by wind turbines. The noise can cause sleep deprivation. Dr. Christopher Hanning, a sleep disorders expert, says “In the short term … deprivation of sleep results in daytime fatigue and sleepiness, poor concentration and memory function. Accident risks increase. In the longer term, sleep deprivation is linked to depression, weight gain, diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease.” Lange wrote “It is well known and accepted worldwide that residents near wind turbines face special challenges, not the least being loss of restorative sleep.” Steven Cooper, an expert in “amplitude modulation” says that sensitive people can identify inaudible “noise” as a sensation. Cooper’s work includes studying the infrasound sound of wind turbines versus the pulsation of the wind turbine sound that is occurring at an infrasound rate. The Flinders study confirms the work of Cooper and shows that the proximity to wind turbines caused serious health effects.

 

CliSci # 365                                       2022-03-24

 

Solar and Anthropogenic Influences on Climate

This paper by Frank Stefani aims to quantify solar and anthropogenic influences on climate change, and to make some tentative predictions for the next hundred years.  The author evaluated linear combinations of the logarithm of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the geomagnetic aa index as a proxy for solar activity. The combination of CO₂ and solar forcing effects reproduces the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since 1850 with high correlation (adjusted R² value of 87%) and transient climate sensitivity (TCS) in the range of 0.6 °C to 1.6 °C per doubling of CO₂. When the last decade of available data is excluded, which includes the occurrence of a strong El Niño, the solutions of TCS are at the lower end of the range. The author makes a prediction of the solar activity based on the planetary synchronization of the solar dynamo. Greenhouse gas forcing was estimates by assuming a linear increase in CO₂ concentrations to 2100 and two scenarios of slower CO₂ growth. The abstract says “Even for the highest climate sensitivities, and an unabated linear CO₂ increase, we predict only a mild additional temperature rise of around 1 K until the end of the century, while for the lower values an imminent temperature drop in the near future, followed by a rather flat temperature curve, is prognosticated.”

 

Ocean Acidification Has Negligible Effects on Fish Behavior

Ocean acidification—decreasing oceanic pH resulting from the uptake of excess atmospheric CO₂—has the potential to affect marine life. Generally, effect size magnitudes in this field have decreased by an order of magnitude over the past decade, from mean effect size magnitudes >5 in 2009 to 2010 to effect size magnitudes <0.5 after 2015. The abstract of this study says “Indeed, the phenomenon of decreasing effect sizes over time is not uncommon and is typically referred to as the ‘decline effect.’ Here, we explore the consistency and robustness of scientific evidence over the past decade regarding direct effects of ocean acidification on fish behavior.” The study reviewed and analysed 91 previous studies of ocean acidification on fish behavior.  Studies reporting large effects are characterized by small sample sizes. The decline effect cannot be explained by 3 potential biological explanations. The studies are “characterized by a decline effect, where large effects in initial studies have all but disappeared in subsequent studies over a decade.” This study finds that faulty reporting of high effects of acidification on fish behaviour was due to a combination of methological and scientists’ biases, selective publication bias and citation bias. Scientists want to find alarming and dramatic results to promote their careers and funding. This study concludes “We contend that ocean acidification has a negligible direct impact on fish behavior.”

 

The Enigma of Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice

This article investigates why there is a large divergence between climate model forecasts and observations of Antarctic sea ice extent.  The extent of Antarctic sea ice varies greatly from year to year, but 40 years of satellite records show a long-term increasing trend. Most climate models indicate that Antarctic sea ice extent should have decreased over the past several decades. Three recent independent studies applied a “nudging” technique to the same climate model to study the influences of different processes on Antarctic sea ice extent. A comparison of three recent studies in which winds, ice drift, and sea surface temperatures were nudged toward an observed value individually or in combination yields valuable insights into the influence of these factors on Antarctic sea ice extent. Antarctic sea ice is strongly coupled to the overlying atmosphere through winds, air temperatures, and other factors. Significant trends have been observed in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica over the past 40 years. Climate models tend to underestimate coupling between winds and sea ice as well as these decades-long atmospheric circulation trends. When the model winds were constrained to follow the past observations for latitudes above 45° S, half of the discrepancy between the observed trend in total sea ice extent around Antarctica since 1979 and the projections of its extent from the model was eliminated. In another model experiment, the Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) was nudged to match the observed SST. This caused the trend of sea ice from 1979 to 2013 to increase from -0.36 million km2/decade to near zero, compared to the observed trend of +0.23 million km2/decade. Thus, the SST nudging compensates for 60% of the model bias. In another experiment, the winds and SST were nudged to match observations from 1979 to 2018. This caused the nudged model to captured 80% of the discrepancy between the observed trend and that simulated by original model.

 

Infeasibility of a Fully Wind/Solar/Storage Electricity System

An article published by Francis Menton, The Manhattan Contrarian, discusses a study by two German authors about energy storage requirements in a fully renewable electricity system for Germany. Menton says “it is a further demonstration of the complete infeasibility — indeed the complete absurdity — of attempting in the short term to replace all fossil fuel electricity generation in a modern economy with only wind, solar and storage.” Without dispatchable backup (fossil fuel) wind and solar power require vast amounts of energy storage to cover the periods of intermittency. In January 2020, Menton wrote about my study which considers a wind-solar-battery generation system for the U.S.A. That study found the total capital cost of electrification would be about US$433 trillion, or 20 times the U.S.A. 2019 gross domestic product. The German study deals with only supplying its current level of electricity demand, rather than demand that may be tripled or more by economy-wide electrification. The study calculates that 24 days of storage is required but with massively over-building the wind-solar system to where its nameplate capacity is five times average electricity demand. The study says “On the supply side, almost 300 GW of variable renewable generators are installed: 92 GW solar PV, 94 GW onshore wind, and 98 GW offshore wind.” For comparison, Germany’s current peak demand is in the range of 100 GW, and average demand is in the range of 60 GW. The battery storage requirements would be 56 TWh, equivalent to about 24 days of average power at a cost of about USD 7.56 trillion.

 

AR6 and Sea Level, in 3 Parts

Andy May published a series of three blog posts about sea level rise and the IPCC’s AR6 report. In Part 1, the data and analysis as presented in AR6 was examined. The review concluded that the statistical evidence presented in AR6 for sea level rise (SLR) acceleration was crude and cherry-picked. May wrote “AR6 would have us believe that because a least squares linear fit to the rise in sea level is larger from 2006 to 2018 than from 1971 to 2018 it is accelerating. Yet from 2012 to 2020 the rate is nearly as low as from 1971 to 2018. … The problem is the rate of rise of sea level is so small today and so linear that their attempts to predict large rates of sea level rise are statistically inept and almost comical.”

Part 2 considers a paper, Frederikse, et al. 2020, about sea level rise considering both tide gauges and satellite data which is frequently cited in the AR6. This paper attempts to reconcile the observed SLR to the sum of its components. Figure 1 shows the match between the observed SLR and the component sum looks good in the 21st century. The match is not so good from 1930 to 1980 but is within the margins of error. Their best estimate of the observed sea-level rise trend from 1900 to 2018 is 1.56 ±0.33 mm/year, an error of ±20%. Figure 2 clearly shows that the rate of sea level rise oscillates on a multi-decadal scale and probably rose as fast as today in the 1940s, within the margin of error.

Part 3 discusses forecasting the global mean SRL in a statistically valid way correcting for autocorrelation, which means that each quarter’s mean sea level estimate is highly dependent upon the previous quarter’s value. Figure 7 shows the NOAA mean SRL and the forecast to 2100. It predicts that global SLR will be between 15 and 26 cm, and a best estimate of 20 cm by 2100 over the 1993-2008 average. Humans have successfully adapted to much higher rates of sea level rise in the past.

 

CliSci # 364                                      2022-03-06

 

Increasing Cold Extremes Worldwide: Is Global Cooling on the way?

Dr. Madhav Khandekar and Ray Garnett published an article about increasing cold extremes. Calgary, Alberta witnessed in 2018 one of the largest snowfalls in recorded history, and Edmonton witnessed 127 consecutive days with below freezing temperatures. Western Canada experiences bitterly cold weather around Christmas 2021.  We were in the throes of another dose of extreme cold weather during the first two months of 2022 from Vancouver to St. John’s, and even to the southeast USA to Greece and Turkey, to Japan, and northeast China. Over North America, brutal and dangerous snowstorms made two visits in the first week of week of February  producing dangerous winter conditions from Nova Scotia, Illinois, and Texas with power outages for over half a million residences. Environmentalists and climate scientist keep talking about the possibility of extreme heat but there is almost no mention of increases in cold extremes either in the climate science community or in the major news media. There has been a 2% increase in Northern Hemispheric snow cover from 1980 to 2021. There is no evidence of the disappearing snow cover and milder winters that the IPPC predicted. This has been Japan’s snowiest winter. Scores of people have died in New Delhi due to India’s cold wave which has brought its first snowfall since 1958.

 

Hydrological Feedback from Projected Earth Greening in the 21st Century

Satellite observations show continuous increasing vegetation growth during the last four decades. Earth System Models project continued greening of the Earth during the 21^st century. This paper (Wu et al 2022) investigated the hydrological feedback from the projected greening by using an ESM forced with CO₂ and increasing leaf area and greening. The paper reports that greening intensifies evapotranspiration and precipitation over land. Increasing leaf area significantly decreases soil moisture content over dry regions but increases soil moisture over the Amazon and Congo rainforest regions. However, rising CO₂ reduces the density of stomatal pores in leaves and enhances water use efficiency. This effect would likely increase soil moisture content.  These two opposite effects cancel out each other at most regions.

 

Vegetation-based Climate Mitigation in a Warmer and Greener World

This paper (Alkama et al 2022) predicts temperature changes induced by future leaf area dynamics. The authors estimated the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003 to 2014 from satellite datasets. The paper says “our analysis shows that the mitigation potential of vegetation-based solutions (afforestation, reforestation, and forest restoration) increases in absolute term, thanks to the amplifying effect of concurrent climate change and increasing plant CO₂ sequestration, but declines in relative magnitude, compared to the overall future warming, especially under the more extreme warming scenarios. Half of the biophysical mitigation effect is due to the forecasted increase in vegetation density. The other half is driven by changes in the background climate that amplifies the mitigation potentials of vegetation”. The abstract says “Results show that by 2100, under high-emission scenario, greening will likely mitigate land warming by 0.71 ± 0.40 °C, and 83% of such effect (0.59 ± 0.41 °C) is driven by the increase in plant carbon sequestration, while the remaining cooling (0.12 ± 0.05 °C) is due to biophysical land-atmosphere interactions.”

 

Carbon Capture and Storage

Howard Dewhirst wrote a post about the problems with using carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce CO₂ in the atmosphere. He shows that the scale of the undertaking is monstrous. The average annual increase in atmospheric CO₂ since 2000 is 2.2 ppm, or 17,160 million tonnes, or 8,680 billion m3 (at standard conditions) which is more than double the total world production of natural gas in 2020. However, roughly half of our emissions are already being sequestered by the Earth’s biosphere and oceans, so to prevent a rise in CO₂ concentration would require capturing almost all of our emissions of about 35,500 million metric tonnes (MMt) CO₂ per year. Dewhirst presents a table of seven CCS projects. The largest operating project is offshore West Australia which stores 3.9 MMtCO₂ per year. Canada’s largest project at Fort Nelson, BC stores 2.2 MMtCO₂ per year. We would need 16,000 Fort Nelson CCS projects to capture the world’s CO₂ emissions.

 

Evaluation of the Homogenization Adjustments Applied to European Temperature Records

A new paper (O’Neill et al 2022) evaluated the homogenization adjustments of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset applied to European temperature records and found several disturbing inconsistencies. The GHCN is a widely used land surface temperature dataset. It is published in non-homogenized and homogenized versions. The homogenized version is updated by applying the “Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm” (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets to correct for artificial biases including station moves, changes in instrumentation and time of observation changes. These changes may cause non-climatic jumps in the station record relative to neighboring stations. The algorithm removes these jumps or ‘breakpoints’. The authors analyzed 3689 different updates to the dataset over the 10-year period 2011-2021. Of the adjustments applied for GHCN Version 4, 64% were identified on less than 25% of runs, while only 16% of the adjustments were identified consistently for more than 75% of the runs. However, only 19% of the breakpoints were associated with a documented event, and 67% were not associated with any documented event. The adjustments do not correspond well to documented changes at the weather stations. Therefore, many of the PHA adjustments may have been spurious. A graphical summary is here.

 

Greenland’s Melting Ice Is No Cause for Panic – Steve Koonin

Steve Koonin, author of “Unsettled”, published an article in the Wall Street Journal and presented here that features a graph of the annual Greenland ice loss 1900 to 2021. The average annual ice loss was about 110 gigatons (billion metric tons). That causes the sea level to rise by only 0.01 inch per year. Koonin wrote “there are large swings in the annual ice loss and it is no larger today than it was in the 1930s, when human influences were much smaller. Moreover, the annual loss of ice has been decreasing in the past decade even as the globe continues to warm. … natural cycles in temperatures and currents in the North Atlantic that extend for decades have been a much more important influence since 1900. Those cycles, together with the recent slowdown, make it plausible that the next few decades will see a further, perhaps dramatic slowing of ice loss.”

 

Corals Thrive in Warm Climates and Growth Slows in Cooler Climates

A new study (Long et al 2022) found the corals thrived when the climate was warmer than today. The authors reconstructed the development of coral reefs located in the northern border of the tropics from drilling cores. The abstract says “The correlation between coral reef vertical accretion rate and its climate background suggests that the rapid development stage of coral reefs on the Weizhou Island could roughly correlated to the Late Megathermal Period, Roman Warm Period and Current Warm Period, and the slowing down stages of development of reefs roughly corresponded to the cold periods, namely the Late Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the early Little Ice Age. In general, the development of coral reefs at relatively high latitudes is dependent on climate changes. The warm periods are conducive to coral growth and otherwise, coral reefs growth would slow down as cold periods came.” As summarized here, sea levels were 2 m higher than they are today ~4,000 years ago, and still about 1 m higher than today 1,000 years ago, or during the Medieval Warm Period. The South China Sea surface temperatures were “3 to 6°C higher than today” from about 5,000 to 4,000 years ago; coral reefs developed rapidly in that warmth.

 

CliSci # 363                                      2022-02-18

 

A Critical Assessment of Extreme Events Trends

The abstract of this new paper starts “This article reviews recent bibliography on time series of some extreme weather events and related response indicators in order to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency is detectable.” The paper shows that “global trends in heatwave intensity are not significant.” There is no trend of daily precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation frequency of weather stations’ data. The frequency of extreme winds (speed > 10 m/s) measured by surface land weather stations during 1973–2019 shows a slightly negative trend for all regions of the world. Observed trends in droughts are still uncertain except in some regions. The observed increase in tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic is substantially due to better reporting. In other regions tropical cyclones have a declining trend. There is no trend on a global basis. Global average mortality and economic loss rates have dropped by 6.5 and 5 times, respectively, from 1980–1989 to 2007–2016. The abstract concludes “In conclusion on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet.”

 

Recent upper Arctic Ocean Warming Expedited by Atmospheric Processes

A new study suggests natural internal atmospheric variability is the major cause of Arctic Ocean warming. The Arctic Ocean exhibits strong warming trends and year-to-year variability of the upper 50 m in the last four decades in summer and fall. The study demonstrates that a multiyear trend in the summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation, which the authors ascribe to internal variability, has played an important role in upper ocean warming in summer and fall over the past four decades. The atmospheric circulation was affected by the sea ice-albedo effect induced by atmospheric dynamics. Modeling experiments suggest that the internal variability contribution to recent upper Arctic Ocean warming accounts for up to one quarter of warming over the past four decades and up to 60% of warming from 2000 to 2018. The abstract says “This suggests that climate models need to replicate this important internal process in order to realistically simulate Arctic Ocean temperature variability and trends.”

 

Record-high Coral Cover of the Great Barrier Reef

Ten years ago a paper published in the scientific journal PNAS predicted that within ten years the coral of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) of Australia would decline to only 5-10% of its original cover. This didn’t happen. According to Peter Ridd, a marine geophysicist who has studied the GBR for over 35 years, the GBR is in absolutely fabulous condition at the moment. Some coral scientists claimed that climate change has caused catastrophic reef damage three times in the past five years. Ridd says “That damage could never have been as dramatic as they claimed: someone has been exaggerating a lot here, because dramatic damage and already such a spectacular recovery, that is simply not possible.”  A long-term monitoring of the reef, conducted by the Australian Institute of Marine Science, shows that the reef was in top condition in 2020-2021. Coral cover has increased in all regions, to 27% in the North, 26% in the Central and 39% in the Southern region. The coral cover is now three times higher than in 2012.

 

Why Global Warming Is Good For Us

Matt Ridley published this article in Spiked-online which explains why global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions is mostly beneficial. He says “The goal of Net Zero emissions in the UK by 2050 is controversial enough as a policy because of the pain it is causing. … The biggest benefit of emissions is global greening, the increase year after year of green vegetation on the land surface of the planet.” NASA data show that global greening has added 618,000 km² of extra green leaves each year, equivalent to the area of three Great Britains.” The largest contributor to global greening is the extra carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the air. This study shows that CO₂ fertilization explains 70% of the greening effect. In 40 years the CO₂ concentration has increased from 0.034% to 0.041%. The leave’s pore size decreases with higher CO₂ in the air so plants lose less water vapour though their pores. Plants become more efficient with their water use and are more resilient against drought. Dry areas, like the Sahel region of Africa, are seeing the biggest increases in greenery.

Cold weather kills about 17 times as many people as hot weather, so warming is preventing deaths. Warming is mostly in cold places, in cold seasons and at night, so winter nighttime temperatures in the north are rising much faster than daytime temperatures in the tropics. The decreasing temperature differential between the tropics and the Arctic may actually diminish the volatility of weather a little. The land area of the planet is actually increasing, not shrinking despite sea level rise, thanks to siltation and reclamation.

 

U.S. Corn-based Ethanol Worse for the Climate than Gasoline

Corn-based ethanol, which for years has been mixed into gasoline, is likely a much bigger contributor to global warming than straight gasoline, according to this new study. The research found that ethanol is likely at least 24% more carbon-intensive than gasoline due to emissions resulting from land use changes to grow corn, along with processing and combustion. As a result of a U.S. Government mandate, corn cultivation grew 8.7% and expanded into 6.9 million additional acres of land between 2008 and 2016, the study found. The study also found that the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%.  See this story by Reuters.  Paul Homewood says “It never did make sense converting productive farmland to fuel for cars. Now it appears that it does not even cut emissions of carbon dioxide. With the EU continuing to mandate higher proportions of ethanol in the fuel mix, it is surely time to call a halt on this huge policy error, and start to cut back on ethanol use.”

 

La Nina Conditions Continue Across the Equatorial Pacific

Meteorologist Paul Dorian wrote a good article on the current La Nina conditions. Numerous computer models suggest that these colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will last into at least the beginning part of the upcoming summer season. If so, La Nina may indeed have an impact on global tropical activity this summer as it did during the last tropical season in 2021. The warm waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean store a great amount of latent heat when compared to cooler waters and breed a great deal of convection which impacts downstream ridging and troughing in the atmosphere.  As such, its sea surface temperature (SST) pattern has a tremendous influence on all weather and climate around the world and the more anomalous the sea surface temperatures, the more the impact can be on the atmosphere around the world. La Nina is usually correlated with weaker wind shear over the storm breeding grounds of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This typically leads to a more favorable environment in the tropical Atlantic for the development/intensification of tropical storm activity. La Nina tends to suppress tropical storm activity in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. Overall tropical cyclone activity was below-normal in 2021 in terms of accumulated cyclone energy, a metric that combines storms intensity and longevity.

 

CliSci # 362                                      2022-02-01

 

Central England Temperature 30-yr Rate

The Central England Temperature (CET) record represents the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence, beginning January 1659. This graph shows the 20-year and 30-year best-fit temperature trends calculated from the annual average temperatures. The horizontal axis year corresponds to the centre of each trend. The final point of the 20-year trend is plotted at 2011 and represents the best-fit linear trend from 2002 to 2021 of 0.00 °C/decade. The 30-year trend from 1992 to 2021 is 0.11 °C/decade. The highest 20-year trend recorded was centered at 1701 and was 1.00 °C/decade. The highest 30-year trend recorded was centered at 1705 at 0.502 °C/decade which was almost matched at 1992 at 0.501 °C/decade. A FOSS member said “It’s blindingly obvious that the pattern is cyclical.”

 

How Much Solar Panels and Battery Backup to Power Germany?

The authors of this paper have calculated that to match Germany’s current electricity demand solely from solar power would require 35,000 km² of land in Spain covered with photovoltaic (PV) solar panels. Spain is the best country in Europe for solar power. The total installed capacity of 2000 GW of PV solar would be required to power Germany, which is almost three times the 2020 worldwide installed solar capacity of 715 GW. In addition, backup storage capacity totaling about 45 TWh would be required. The full output of 900 Tesla Gigafactories working at full capacity for one year would produce sufficient storage capacity. The PV panels would need to be replaced every 15 years equivalent to 10% of the current global production capacity. The 14-day battery storage requirement of the Spanish solar power for Germany would exceed the 2020 global battery production by a factor of 4 to 5.

 

Model Fails: Correlation between Albedo and Temperature

Thunderstorms in the tropics play a major role in regulating the Earth’s temperature. Thunderstorms start to form when a temperature threshold is met. First, random eddying is replaced by organized circulating cells in the atmosphere. These cells transport heat and water vapor upwards to where it cools enough to condense into clouds. The increase in cloud cover increases Earth’s albedo so more sunlight is reflected back to space. At a higher temperature threshold the cumulus clouds grow rapidly into towering thunderstorms which cause strong winds around the thunderstorm base, which increases evaporation.  Willis Eschenbach wrote in this blog post “A thunderstorm is capable of driving the surface temperature well below the initiation temperature that was needed to get the thunderstorm started.” Thunderstorms are not represented in any climate model because the grid cells are far larger than a thunderstorm.

Willis compared albedo and temperature data from the CERES satellite to that of a climate model. The CERES data, 2000 to 2020, shows that in much of the tropical ocean the albedo is positively correlated with the temperature. The Arctic and Antarctic regions are strongly anti-correlated. A climate model shows the Polar Regions have much higher correlation than in the real world. In the tropics the climate model has much lower correlation than in the CERES data. Figure 7 shows the stark differences between the CERES and climate models average correlation of albedo and surface temperature by degree latitude, indicating the models do a very poor job of simulating the cooling effects of clouds.

 

Ocean Surface Temperature Limit

Richard Willoughby published a paper that analyses the role of atmospheric water in regulating Earth’s thermal balance. The paper shows the actual temperature limiting process using hourly data observed at moored buoys in three tropical oceans. Open ocean surface temperature is observed to be limited to below 32 °C and annual average for the warmest open ocean water is 30 °C. The mechanism of deep convection results in the persistency of clouds over ocean warm pools preventing further heat uptake once the sea surface reaches 32 °C. The global ocean energy balance is examined and it is shown that atmospheric water is a net cooling agent. When the total atmospheric water in a column reaches the equivalent of 45 mm of liquid water, the atmospheric water becomes a net cooling agent with reduction in surface insolation due to cloud reflection being greater than the reduction in outgoing longwave radiation due to the low radiating temperature of high-altitude cloud. Current climate models falsely assume the oceans keep absorbing heat through the surface without end.

 

Ottawa's Climate Plans "a Blueprint for Disaster"

The International Climate Science Coalition - Canada issued a news release that warns the City of Ottawa's Climate Change Master Plan threatens to leave the city "polluted, fragile and bankrupt." The conclusions are included in "A Cautionary Tale for Governments around the World," a report released by ICSC-Canada.com about Ottawa’s Climate Change Master Plan. The forecast cost of achieving ”net-zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is $57.4-billion, almost $60,000 for every person in Ottawa. The City foresees annual community-wide spending on the plan of $1.6 billion per year between 2020 and 2030. If that came out of property taxes, it would raise them by 86% over the amounts collected in 2021. The plan includes no meaningful cost-benefit analysis. The plan included 36 square kilometers of roof-top solar panels, 710 industrial wind turbines each taller than the Peace Tower on the Parliament Buildings, and 122 large shipping containers of lithium batteries. The plan would reduce global emissions by only 0.014%. The report says the City of Ottawa’s plan will cause great financial pain to residents and the businesses of Ottawa for no environmental benefit. Indeed, enabling the plan would contribute to an ecological and humanitarian disaster.

 

Japan’s Data Show No Warming, NASA Changes to Warming

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) temperature data for Tokyo show that the megalopolis has been cooling since 1994. KiryeNet plotted the mean annual temperature of Tokyo from JMA data, the NASA unadjusted version 4 and the NASA homogenized (altered) version 4 on one chart. NASA’s Version 4 Unadjusted data plot is very similar to the JMA data, both showing no warming since 1994. Pierre Gosselin wrote “But then NASA altered the data, and now its so-called V4 “Adjusted Homogenized” plot suddenly shows a ruddy warming trend [of 0.22 °C/decade]. The JMA data, we suppose, isn’t good enough, and so NASA took it upon themselves to fix it up. Don’t believe the Japanese data!” Pierre presents another temperature plot of the island of Hachijo-jima, some 287 km in the Pacific. The island doesn’t have the urban sprawl that exists in Tokyo. The plot of temperatures from 1950 to 2021 shows no warming trend in either the JMA or NASA unadjusted data. Pierre wrote “NASA tampered with the data and now its V4 Adjusted Homogenized data plot shows a strong warming trend since 1950. This is in stark contrast to what the JMA data plot shows and what NASA’s V4 Unadjusted data depict.” NASA tampers with the data to get a warming trend of 0.18 °C/decade that they want.

 

Wind Turbines Enhance Nighttime Warming

Many studies show that the urban heat island effect causes about half of the measured warming since 1980 over land. The UHIE has several causes; one of which is by tall structures causing turbulence of the nighttime lower atmosphere which mixes the warmer air aloft to the surface. The ground cools faster at night than the air, creating an inversion. A new study (Qin et al 2022) quantifies the impacts of 319 wind farms on local climate and vegetation in the United States. The study reported “significant warming of 0.10 °C on annual mean nighttime land surface temperature averaged for all wind farms, and 0.36 °C for those 61% wind farm samples with warming”. The average warming in winter and autumn was 0.18 °C. The larger windfarms had a warming effect of 0.21 °C. The warming impact was detectable up to 10 km from the wind farms. The wind turbines warm the surface by mixing the warmer, nighttime air above the wind turbine to the surface, much like the effect of tall city buildings. Kenneth Richards wrote that the study “affirms the warming ‘saved’ by emissions mitigation is easily exceeded by the direct surface warming from turbine-atmosphere interactions.”

 

CliSci # 361                                      2022-01-14

 

Financial Overview of Shell Canada Quest CCS Project

Quest is the world’s first commercial-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility applied to oil sands operations. CCS is the process of capturing carbon dioxide (CO₂) before it enters the atmosphere, transporting it, and storing it for centuries or millennia. A Professional Engineer who used to work at Shell Canada and who supports Friends of Science wrote this financial overview of the Shell Canada Quest CCS project. The  Shell  Canada  Quest  project  is  the  second  largest  CCS  project  in  Canada and has 6 years of operational history, as of Q4, 2021.  Its large size provides economy of scale, reducing the unit cost of CO₂ removal. This project is 80% subsidized by the Alberta and federal governments. The total of capital and operating costs for the project are Can$790 million and Can$29 million per year, respectively. Assuming a 2% interest rate on a 10 year loan, the Quest CCS cost is $122 / tonne of CO₂, for 10 years. Assuming a 20 year loan, the CCS cost is reduced to $81/tonne CO₂. Assuming a 3% interest rate with a 20 year loan, the CCS cost is $86/tonne CO₂.

 

Why Are the Low-lying Islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans Expanding?

In CliSci # 353 of 2021-09-10, I reported that the total land area of 221 atoll islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans have increased in area by 6.1% between 2000 and 2017. A new study by Boretti December 2021 explains this “by analyzing the long-term tide gauge records, corrected for subsidence by Global Positioning System monitoring.” The paper reports that “the absolute sea levels are rising much slower than in climate model predictions. The relative rate of sea level rise is highly variable but on average is a modest +0.46 mm/year, subject to an almost trivial acceleration of + 0.0091 mm/year².” This article by Ken Richard provides part of the paper. Over half of the net growth post 2000 occurred from 2013 to 2017. The coral islands are living things and new coral growth provides new material to the islands. Boretti wrote “the observed general trend is only compatible with a global sea level growing only slowly.”

 

NOAA Arctic Fraud

Tony Heller at RealClimateScience.com has produces an excellent video. He wrote “With the Arctic melting scam collapsing in real time, the Biden administration digs in their heels and ramps up the fraud.” In the video Heller said “Arctic sea ice extent for the date [January 8, 2022] was the highest of the past 18 years. The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic now is about the same as it was in 1991. … There has been no trend in the Arctic sea ice minimum over the past 15 years.” A report from NOAA published a graph of sea ice extent starting in 1979 which was likely the highest sea ice extent of the last 100 years. But NOAA has satellite data from the early 1970s.  A graph from the 1990 IPCC report shows the sea ice extent in 1972 to 1975 was significantly less than the average 1996-1990 average. “By hiding all of the lower data to the left of their start point, they can make it look like there is a downward trend. And if we go back even further to the 1985 DOE report we can see that see ice extent during the 1950s was much lower than it was even during the early 1970s.” 1979 was the coldest year on record since 1900 in Reykjavik, Iceland. NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said in 2007 that the Arctic could be nearly ice-free by 2012. James Hansen said in 2008 that the Arctic will be ice-free between 2013 and 2018. They were so wrong. Arctic may have been ice-free 6000-7000 years ago when temperatures were several °C higher than now and CO₂ levels were low. Trees grew all the way to the Arctic Ocean in Canada. The tree line is now 80 to 100 km further south.

 

Scientific Paper List Indicating “Extremely Low CO₂ Climate Sensitivity”

Kenneth Richards has published a list of 137 scientific papers indicating very low CO₂ climate sensitivity and he gives a summary of four of the papers. The list of the 137 papers is here. Below is a short description of two new papers.

• Coe et al 2021. Using the HITRAN database of absorption spectra and radiative transfer calculations the authors calculate the climate sensitivity of doubled CO₂ of 0.50 °C including the positive feedback from water vapour (H₂O). The estimate doesn’t include any cloud feedback effects. “Any attempts to estimate the further impact of cloud would be based upon speculation only”. The climate sensitivity of double methane (CH4) including H₂O feedback is 0.06 °
• Scholdknecht 2020. This paper also used radiative transfer calculations and estimates the equilibrium climate sensitivity to be about 0.5 °C for a doubling of CO₂. The author compares the results to empirical measurements of short-term fluctuations sea surface temperatures and satellite-based radiative flux measurements originally published by Lindzen and Choi, and concludes that “there is satisfactory agreement between the theoretical result” of 0.5 °C and 0.7 °C from the experimental results.

 

Rapid Increases in Shrubland and Forest Intrinsic Water-use Efficiency

Globally, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) has risen dramatically over the past century in concert with increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. This paper says that the iWUE could be further accelerated by long-term drought events such as the drought in the US southwest. The paper shows that the “iWUE is increasing in the Southwest at one of the fastest rates documented due to the recent drying trend. These increases were particularly large across three common shrub species”. The shift to more water-efficient vegetation would be, all else being equal, a net positive for plant health.

 

Atmospheric CO₂ and Climate on Intrinsic Water-use Efficiency in South Asian Trees

This paper [Rahman et al 2020] describes the long-term and inter-annual variability in intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of tropical trees in South Asia in response to variations of environmental conditions. The authors found significant increasing trends in iWUE in all the three species that were studied. Commonality analysis revealed that temperatures had a dominant influence on the inter-annual iWUE variability (64–77%) over precipitation (7–22%). However, the long-term variations in iWUE were explicitly determined by the atmospheric CO₂ increase. The iWUE were determined by examining tree cores which produced an iWUE record spanning the three-decade period 1986-2015. The iWUE increased by 29% in two tree species and by 46% in the other over three decades. A review by CO₂ Science says “And thus we find yet another real world example that rising atmospheric CO₂ is benefitting vegetation across the globe by helping to improve plant iWUE. Amazingly, a mere 15% increase in CO₂ was powerful enough to raise the intrinsic water use efficiencies of these tropical forest tree species by 29-46%. And if CO₂ can do that in just three decades, imagine what it can do over a lifetime!”

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